052  
FXAK68 PAFC 050115  
AFDAFC  
 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK  
515 PM AKDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE  
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED  
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE COPPER  
RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO INTO THE MATSU VALLEYS. THE MAIN CONCERN  
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL ENTAIL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN EASTERLY WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WHICH HAS ALREADY  
INITIATED AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WRANGELLS TO NEAR  
SLANA, AS WELL AS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM PAXSON INTO  
THE TALKEETNAS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH  
OF THE DAY, BUT ANTICIPATE SOME WINDS TO BEND INTO ANCHORAGE FROM  
THE TURNAGAIN ARM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED  
WET THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM TODAY INTO  
TOMORROW WILL BE A LIKELY UPTICK IN WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.  
GUSTY SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY  
WITH THE KNIK WIND PUSHING INTO PARTS OF PALMER BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THOSE TRAVELING ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM  
WILL NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD ALSO  
BE FELT OVER THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND WEST SIDE OF TOWN.  
POTENTIAL GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS FORECAST TO BRING A FRONT INTO  
THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE TOMORROW WITH INCREASING WINDS AND  
SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE BARREN  
ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT BEFORE THE FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING  
NORTHWARD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A MILD  
BARRIER JET WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EASTERLY WINDS FROM CANOE  
ISLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE COMBINATION OF  
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPELL A PATTERN CHANGE FOR  
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  
 
 
 
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS  
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
 
THE COMPLEX LOW SITTING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE  
PRIBILOFS HAS MOSTLY CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO  
THE NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SWATH OF RAIN  
EXTENDS FROM THE PRIBILOFS TO SAND POINT WITH A STOUT  
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND, WITH THE PRIBILOFS ALSO REPORTING FOG OR LOW  
VISIBILITY MIST. COLD BAY HAS LIKELY SEEN THEIR PEAK IN GAP WINDS  
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISTOL BAY HAS A SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY IN EFFECT, WHICH COULD AFFECT NUSHAGAK AND KVICHAK BAYS.  
LOOKING WESTWARD, THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE BEEN REPORTING FOG  
AND MIST DUE TO TRANSIENT SURFACE RIDGING, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW, BUT  
WILL STILL BRING AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AK PEN AND  
BRISTOL BAY AREAS. THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE THE  
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE, WHICH COULD ADD UP TO ONE TO  
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR PERRYVILLE, CHIGNIK, AND IVANOF BAY BEFORE  
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND MOSTLY  
CONFINED TO THE NORTH, BUT SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST KUSKOKWIM VALLEY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, FARTHER WEST, A KAMCHATKA LOW  
BEGINS ITS APPROACH TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES  
KEEP THIS LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, KEEPING MOST  
RAINFALL OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT  
OF SPREAD HEADING INTO MONDAY REGARDING THE LOW'S TRACK AND TIMING  
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING PRECIPITATION  
OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, WHILE OTHERS CLIP  
ADAK AND ATKA WITH RAINFALL.  
 
-AM  
 
 
   
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
 
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA/SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA AND OVER THE  
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THESE LOWS IS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLANDS. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND COAST ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE INTERIOR TERRAIN.  
 
LIGHT RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK NORTH  
PACIFIC LOW. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND  
THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC  
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. ONE TREND FROM YESTERDAY'S LONG-TERM  
FORECAST IS THAT THIS ARCTIC TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO DIG AS FAR  
SOUTH, BUT ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING NORTON  
SOUND. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WAY LOWER THAN  
NORMAL BUT MORE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT TRACKED FROM THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHERN AKPEN LOOKS TO HAVE ITS ENERGY MOVE TO  
THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE  
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS TIMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS  
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE TO SAY THAT THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST,  
INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND, WILL BE THE WETTER LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. BACK TO THE WEST,  
A KAMCHATKA SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE CLOSE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY  
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY THEN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN  
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON  
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  
 
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab AK Page
Main Text Page