916
FXAK68 PAFC 070044
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKDT SUN JUL 6 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF
WILL BEGIN TO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE HAS SPAWN A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN MIDDLETON ISLAND AND SEWARD. THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA,
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE, INSTABILITY LINGERS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS THAT GET
GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTING
STRIKES. LIGHTNING STRIKE ACTIVITY THE REST OF TODAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
ANCHORAGE, THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, AND THE REST OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE A STEADIER
RAIN FOR THOSE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ULTIMATELY SETUP; ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING MORE CONFINED TO THE TERRAIN.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WHILE WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN, THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS
THE COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE SURFACE AIDING WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LOW WILL END UP MOVING INTO THE
GULF BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE COAST
AND KODIAK ISLAND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS THE LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, SLACK FLOW
AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILD IN. THIS WILL HAVE A DRYING EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND, LEADING TO CLEARER SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
BY MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE
DRIER PATTERN, THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL RETAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA,
POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING A SMALL GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
EXTEND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE BERING WILL SEE A COL WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. A SMALL LOW IS
PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAINFALL. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD, REACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
LOW, MORE WEAK FLOW WILL BUILD IN, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A FRONT INLAND INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND WILL TRIGGER GUSTY
WINDS ESPECIALLY OUT OF GAP REGIONS SUCH AS THE KAMISHAK GAP.
LOOKING A BIT AHEAD INTO THURSDAY REVEALS THAT MORE FRONTS WILL
PUSH INLAND, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IN ADDITION TO BRISTOL BAY.
-JAR
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, WEAK FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN). THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND REORIENT WITH A MORE EAST TO WEST AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR
FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY. WETTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND, THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. STEADY RAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST TAPER OFF TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY VERY MUCH LIKE INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND ENERGY GOES TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
FURTHER TO THE WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN KAMCHATKA INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY
THURSDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE BERING BUT MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND AS FAR EAST AS
NUNIVAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING BY FRIDAY. RAIN WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING THE TRACK OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
(CANADIAN AND SOMEWHAT THE ECMWF) WHILE SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
CLIP THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN WITH THE
FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THOSE AREAS.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
MON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY MON MORNING
AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 4-6 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RISING AGAIN AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM INCREASES THIS EVENING AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL DROP
AGAIN BY 15Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT SHOULD STAY VFR.
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z MON MORNING.
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