799
FXAK68 PAFC 071222
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 AM AKDT MON JUL 7 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF
THE LOW HAVE BROUGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH LESS NUMEROUS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WRANGELL AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ALONG THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE IN THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEFLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS (NOT INCLUDING THE COAST OR
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES) AS A TRANSIENT COASTAL
RIDGE MOVES IN. THE COASTAL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, ASIDE FROM A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN, THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THERE IS REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT A NORTH PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BRING RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AS
WELL AS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE SURFACE AIDING WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LOW WILL END
UP MOVING INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER ALONG THE COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA, THE
SOURCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS SHIFTS TO THE
BUILDING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW OVER MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, KEEPING THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA MOSTLY
INACTIVE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS. GIVEN THE
DRIER PATTERN, THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL RETAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS.
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED LOWS, A COL OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY COVERED IN STRATUS CLOUDS AND COASTAL
FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BUILDING LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAINFALL. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD, REACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, POTENTIALLY RE-INITIATING CHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY ALSO INCREASE
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OUT OF GAP REGIONS SUCH AS THE KAMISHAK
GAP.
-CL/JAR
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, WEAK FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN). THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND REORIENT WITH A MORE EAST TO WEST AXIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR
FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY. WETTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND, THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. STEADY RAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST TAPER OFF TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY VERY MUCH LIKE INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND ENERGY GOES TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
FURTHER TO THE WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN KAMCHATKA INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY
THURSDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE BERING BUT MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND AS FAR EAST AS
NUNIVAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WILL
WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING BY FRIDAY. RAIN WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
LIGHT. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING THE TRACK OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
(CANADIAN AND SOMEWHAT THE ECMWF) WHILE SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
CLIP THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN WITH THE
FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THOSE AREAS.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM THE NORTH.
CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BUT SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION, WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING ALONG THE CHUGACH FRONT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL
THIS EVENING.
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