936
FXAK68 PAFC 080020
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT MON JUL 7 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
A LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DRIVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING AND
WESTERLY FLOW TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE AREA, MATANUSKA VALLEY, AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WILL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THE SETUP LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS, AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
TO OCCUR DUE TO POSSIBLE LIMITED INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE, A
COASTAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT GULF LOW SLATED
FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH TURNAGAIN, THE KNIK RIVER, AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH ANCHORAGE, PALMER, AND THE
SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST WINDS PEAK WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT BIG SYNOPTIC WEATHER-MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ITS FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT KODIAK
ISLAND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE BARREN ISLANDS. A BARRIER
JET ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LOOKS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CORRIDOR OF EASTERLY STORM-FORCE
GUSTS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. THE WETTEST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL CONTEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENTLY, THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW.
THIS MEANS THAT CALM WINDS AND LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA NEAR ANIAK, WHICH HAVE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS
QUIETER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME
SHORTWAVES FROM A LOW IN NORTHERN ALASKA WILL DROP DOWN AND MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE ANIAK REGION, BUT MAY BRIEFLY STRETCH TOWARDS
BETHEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, THE BERING IS HAVING A LOW PUSH THROUGH, BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD.
RAINFALL AND HIGHER WINDS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW IS A WEAK RIDGE,
WHICH WILL DECREASE WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
BERING THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONTS FROM THE LOW, WHICH MOVES INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC WEST OF KODIAK, WILL PUSH INTO BRISTOL BAY ON
THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE KAMISHAK GAP THROUGH NEW STUYAHOK BY THURSDAY.
AS THE LOW PASSES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND ON THURSDAY.
-JAR
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH MANY TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVES/STORMS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT OUR AOR AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST BUT IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. DUE TO
THE MANY FEATURES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC, AN AREA THAT MODELS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH, OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH FEATURE
IS LOW. GENERALLY SPEAKING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE MARITIME INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.
-CJ
AVIATION
PANC...GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
MVFR CEILING IS LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ON AND
MORE STABLE AIR SETTLES IN TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS, SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
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