066
FXAK68 PAFC 090149
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
549 PM AKDT TUE JUL 8 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLIER HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY WITH TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOW
OVERHEAD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE, TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXISTS FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE KENAI MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME ISOLATED POTENTIAL OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND
EXTREME WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN ALONG THE COAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHEASTERLY
GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH TURNAGAIN, THE KNIK
RIVER, AND THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH ANCHORAGE, PALMER, AND THE SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN
WITH THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS PEAK WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY WILL IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND
FIRST, BRINGING ROUNDS OF RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF
COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH WITH THE FRONT,
PUSHING GUSTS TO STORM FORCE THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AND THE
SETTING UP A BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BARRIER JET IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH A CORRIDOR OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORM-FORCE GUSTS IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WETTEST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS STORM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AND
KODIAK ISLAND, WITH INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING PERIODS OF LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE TERRAIN.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TRYING TO NUDGE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO MORE EASTERLY WAVES MOVING INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PERHAPS THE SUSITNA VALLEY FOR FRIDAY WHEN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL, AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A SLOW
MOVING LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA.
INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LIMITED BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS RESULTED IN LATE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY JUST
NORTH OF SLEETMUTE. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK TODAY, AN
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A 20% CHANCE AN ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORM IN THE CROOKED CREEK TO LIME VILLAGE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENINGTODAY. TOMORROW, THE
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM
LIME VILLAGE TO CROOKED CREEK NORTHWARD DECREASES TO 10% TO 20%.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SW
MAINLAND THOUGH DECREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE, A SLOW MOVING LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES
TO BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONGER
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING TOO; HEAVIEST ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
AREAS ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COASTLINE IS THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, COASTAL SW ALASKA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING
AND GULF WITH 3 TO 4 SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. OVER THE
MAINLAND, A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THROUGH TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE A
STOUT RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ALCAN, YUKON TERRITORY AND BC. THE
TRANSITION OF THE PATTERN FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY IS MESSY,
PARTICULARLY WITH HOW THE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT WITH THE INTERIOR
RIDGING. OVER THE WEEKEND WE'RE LOOKING AT A SHOWERY PATTERN OVER
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. MOVING INTO THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIALLY
WET SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN, THERE
WILL BE A TROPICAL TAP TO THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTH, SO SOME AREAS
WILL RECEIVE SOME MODERATE RAIN. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A LARGE
MERIDIONAL SPREAD IN THE STORM TRACK WITH VARIED IMPACTS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN THE BERING, WHICH MAY BRING
CONCERNS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS.
-CJ
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, BUT A BIT LATER
THAN THE TYPICAL ONSET. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
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