916
FXAK68 PAFC 100016
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
416 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...
A COASTAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CURRENTLY CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SOUTHEASTERLY GAP
WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, THE KNIK VALLEY, AND THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND PEAK DURING THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45
MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM WITH 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH THE KNIK VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER VALLEY. THESE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, MOST AREAS ARE CURRENTLY DRY, EXCEPT
SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND (MORE ON THAT BELOW). THERE REMAINS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM. MOST SHOWERS THE REST OF
TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A STRONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
KODIAK ISLAND WHERE AKHIOK IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ON ITS JOURNEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
GUSTS UP TO STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST
OFF/SOUTH OF THE COAST. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS DOWN SHELIKOF STRAIT AS WELL AS SMALL-
CRAFT WINDS WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS DOWN SOUTHERN COOK INLET.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE INNER WATERS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW AND FRONT WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY HEADING TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM YUKON, CANADA WILL MOVE
WEST OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM MCCARTHY TO NABESNA AND NORTHWESTWARD TO PAXSON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE, AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS DRY FOR
SATURDAY, EXCEPT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT
WITH WEAK RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEK.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 MPH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH
400PM RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. LOCALIZED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS IN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THESE WINDS GUSTS AND ELEVATED
WAVES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY, THEN
NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS COULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THOUGH REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SIGNALED BY DECREASING WINDS. OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL FOG FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ARE LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
A SECOND LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASED GAP WINDS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN GAPS AND
PASSES ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW EXITS THOUGH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
BEHIND IT, STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND GULF WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. OVER THE MAINLAND, A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THROUGH
TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE ALCAN, YUKON TERRITORY AND BC. THE TRANSITION OF THE PATTERN
FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY IS MESSY, PARTICULARLY WITH HOW THE
TROUGHS WILL INTERACT WITH THE INTERIOR RIDGING. OVER THE WEEKEND
WE'RE LOOKING AT A SHOWERY PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. MOVING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
NEXT WEEK MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIALLY WET SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN, THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL TAP TO THE
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH, SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME MODERATE
RAIN. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A LARGE MERIDIONAL SPREAD IN THE STORM
TRACK WITH VARIED IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SET UP IN THE
BERING, WHICH MAY BRING CONCERNS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
CJ/DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PEAK INTENSITY
LIKELY AROUND 3Z. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
WINDS WILL BEND DOWN THE INLET BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z AS A LOW
APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND.
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