087
FXAK68 PAFC 110044
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEEP CLOSE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE ISLAND, WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. A BAND
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS BEING OBSERVED JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE
INNER WATERS, NAMELY SHELIKOF STRAIT, COOK INLET, AND SOUTHERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND, WITH UPSLOPE WINDS ENHANCING RAINFALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. KODIAK AIRPORT HAS RECORDED NEARLY
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 36 HOURS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
REPORTED HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG SARGENT CREEK
THIS MORNING. RAINFALL INTENSITY IS LIGHTENING UP CONSIDERABLE
AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE FRONT WEAKENS.
RAIN IS ALSO FALLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND, BUT INTENSITY IS GENERALLY LIGHT. SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVES
WHICH EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW ARE CROSSING SOUTHCENTRAL,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, BUT
OVERALL JUST CLOUDY WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ULTIMATELY TRACKING ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN
DIMINISHING ACROSS KODIAK AND THE GULF COAST. THE BULK OF IMPACTS
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STEADY SUPPLY OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. FOR THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN BASIN, AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH FROM THE AK RANGE SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY-MAXIMA WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS LIKELY TRANSITING
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SURFACE HEATING LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LOW. STORM MOTION COULD
ADVECT A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS INTO THE MAT-SU
FRIDAY, BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO CANADA, A RIDGE IN THE
ARCTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND AK, BRIEFLY CUTTING
OFF DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LATE SATURDAY THEN OPENING BACK UP
AND CONNECTING UP WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
MESSAGE IS QUIET LOW IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, KODIAK,
AND THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERIOR AND DIP DOWN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL -
BUT STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND STORM MOTION
WILL BE WEAK. THUS, DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN COULD HELP TRAP SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE. NONETHELESS, EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN BREAKS TO DEVELOP
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SUNSHINE LATE
SATURDAY AND THEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD A WEAK TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
-SEB
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SATELLITE SHOWS A LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH
4:00PM TODAY HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE GREATEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN MEASURED IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE KVICHAK
RIVER VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOO AS THE LOW DEPARTS.
A SECOND LOW REMAINS ON ITS TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW BRINGS CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, PERIODS OF
FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOMORROW. A THIRD LOW, CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA, MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO CANADIAN BC
AND YUKON. A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
STREAM NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE TERMINUS OF THE
TROUGH, SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND INLAND, THE ECMWF TAKES AN EASTERLY TRACK
BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE GULF, AND THE CANADIAN-NH CREATES A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. CONSENSUS
IS BETTER OUT WEST, WHERE A SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
PUSHES A FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE BERING SEA
AND THE WESTERN HALF OF ALASKA. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW TURNS
NORTH ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
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