167
FNAK71 PAFC 110349
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR NELCHINA GLACIER FIRE...SOA DOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
749 PM AKDT THU JUL 10 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 AKDT ON JULY 10.
DISCUSSION
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER 7 PM FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
BUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
40 TO 60 PERCENT PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE TIMING FOR EACH POTENTIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AREA BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT DRIER WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 TO 6
MPH OVERNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........96 96 92 92 92 84 84 84 67 67
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN RN
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............50 48 46 44 43 42 41 40 40 40
RH..............72 75 79 84 85 88 88 89 89 90
20 FT WIND DIR..E E NE NE NE N N N NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 12 12 12 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 14 14 14 9 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E NE NE NE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 TO
8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........67 73 73 73 80 80 80 87 87 87 72 72
WEATHER COV.....SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RN
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 40 60 60
TEMP............40 42 44 46 49 51 53 55 57 58 59 59
RH..............85 82 80 74 67 65 60 59 55 53 51 52
20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W SW SW SW S S S SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.9 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N NE NE NE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 23 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
10 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72 57 57 57 73 73 73 73 73 73 87 87
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
CWR.............0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
TEMP............58 58 56 53 51 48 47 46 45 45 44 44
RH..............54 57 62 68 75 81 85 89 92 93 94 94
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N W W W W W W SW SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 8 8
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CWR.................23 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........87 89 89 89 90 90 90 84 84 84 72 72
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
CWR.............20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............44 45 46 48 50 52 54 55 57 59 60 61
RH..............92 91 89 87 84 80 74 69 65 61 59 58
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.2 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
FORECASTER...RUX
REQUESTED BY...BEN ENGLEHARDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517468.3/AER
.DELDT 07/10/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL FIREINALASKA@YAHOO.COM,TOBY.STAPLETON@USDA.GOV,JERED.KEMP@ALASKA.GOV,DANIEL.WHITE@ALASKA.GOV,ANDY_JOHNSON@FIRENET.GOV,FIRENCOLORADO@GMAIL.COM
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