518
FXAK68 PAFC 080028
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
RAIN THAT OVERSPREAD ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
SHOWERY IN NATURE WHILE PERSISTENT RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. STEADIER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT REACHES
THE COAST AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE MAT VALLEY IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHEASTERLY CROSS-
BARRIER FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING REMAINS RATHER MODEST. SURFACE AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUE TO SHOW EASTERLY
GALE- FORCE GUSTS WHILE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE TYPICAL
EAST/WEST GAP ZONES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND AND STALLS.
COASTAL RAINFALL AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
OVER THE AKPEN BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR AS AN OPEN
WAVE. SEVERAL MORE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SET TO FOLLOW THE
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW AS A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND A TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
-JH
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA AND THE
REMNANTS OF A TROUGH CONTINUE ONGOING RAINFALL ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW IS MAINTAINING THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA COOL AND WET,
DECREASING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST TO DIMINISH
STEADILY TONIGHT. THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A NEW UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA, RE-INITIATING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM A
TROUGH AXIS ESTABLISHING FROM NEAR CROOKED CREEK TO NEAR BETHEL.
THIS COMPACT FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO
THE AREA, AND BEGIN SWEEPING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, ORIENTING OVER LIME VILLAGE TO ILIAMNA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. COASTAL BRISTOL BAY MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY EVEN AS
COLD AIR SWEEPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTED A STEADY, BUT NOT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH FRONTAL
PUSH. OVER THE BERING, WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS TO PERSIST, WITH
LIMITED AREAS OF FOG, AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS
SET TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BRINGING A NEW
SOURCE OF RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING THE NEW WESTERN BERING FRONT WILL STEADILY SPREAD
EASTWARD, REACHING AMCHITKA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE RIDES UNDER
THE RIDGE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND RAIN WILL MAKE IT WITH THE ECMWF
BRINING IT OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY COASTAL. THE BERING REMAINS ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES GREATLY BY THIS TIME, BUT
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM TO
OR ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
PANC...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY REMAINING IN VFR AND PERIODS OF VISIBILITY TO
MVFR.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page