426
FXAK68 PAFC 081325
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
A LARGE, NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY TREK NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE AKPEN THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
LIFTING INTO THE INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA. FOR TODAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED STACKED LOW WILL EJECT SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL RESULTING IN CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR INLAND
AREAS AND PERIODS OF MORE STEADY, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL, INCLUDING THE COOK INLET UP TO
THE MAT-SU VALLEY, AND COPPER BASIN, WILL SEE A STEADY DECREASE IN
OVERALL SHOWERS BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER,
THE TROUGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, AND ANOTHER LOW WORKING ITS WAY
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ALEUTIANS, WILL HELP TO
REINFORCED THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ON-AGAIN-OFF-AGAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS FOR INLAND VALLEYS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF WE CAN SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER, WE COULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL
POSE A MORE INTERESTING CHALLENGE AS THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DIG
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA LOOKS TO DRAG COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
DOWN WILL IT. MODELS ARE IN ACQUIREMENT WILL THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
PUSH OF COLDER AIR. REGARDLESS, COLDER MIDLEVELS USUALLY HINT AT
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS, SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BODE KEEPING AN
EYE ON FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
AN UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC TROUGH CUTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPS A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW AT ITS BASE NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. ITS FRONT PRODUCES A BAND OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL, THAT TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED A STEADY, BUT NOT STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH FRONTAL
PUSH. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50'S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 60'S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCOMING
FRONT FROM THE BERING SEA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SCOOTS IN FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AREA EXPECTED TO PERSISTS OVER MUCH THE
BERING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, A KAMCHATKA LOW PUSHES ITS FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA, BRINGING WITH IT A NEW SOURCE OF RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS.
A CORRIDOR OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BERING, MOVING EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
BERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE RIDES UNDER
THE RIDGE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INLAND RAIN WILL MAKE IT WITH THE ECMWF
BRINING IT OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY COASTAL. THE BERING REMAINS ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA. MODEL AGREEMENT DETERIORATES GREATLY BY THIS TIME, BUT
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM TO
OR ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
PANC...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY REMAINING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY. TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS WILL BEND NORTH AND STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON,
PEAKING NEAR 09Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS FIRE ISLAND BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD.
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