463  
FXAK68 PAFC 091338  
AFDAFC  
 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK  
538 AM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
   
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
 
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE GREATLY DROPPED OFF IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST  
24 HRS AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM HAS MOVED INTO THE INTERIOR.  
WHILE COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE GULF WILL STILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS  
THIS MORNING, MUCH OF THE REST OF INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL GET A  
BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
BRINGS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR LATER TODAY, AND  
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCOMING FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
COMPACT LOW THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS INTO Y-K DELTA REGION.  
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FEW  
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE CANADIAN AND EC HAVE A WARMER AND MORE  
NEUTRAL TROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM AND GFS MORE  
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH COLDER MIDLEVELS. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING TO  
DEVELOP SUNDAY ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER  
BASIN. THE LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY GAP  
FLOW WINDS TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS LIFT STARTS TO  
INCREASE OVER THE MAT-SU REGION TOMORROW. MODELS SEEM HESITANT TO  
INCREASE INSTABILITY TOO MUCH, BUT DO HAVE BETWEEN 300-500 J/KG  
OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN  
WITH THE TROUGH. AS SUCH, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY,  
ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY.  
SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE  
NORTHERN COPPER BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS  
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. UNSETTLED WEATHER  
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. BY TUESDAY,  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.  
 
- PP  
 

 
 
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS  
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER NORTON SOUND IS PUSHING A FAIRLY  
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. ALONG THE  
FRONT, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE SWEEPING EAST FROM THE  
KUSKOKWIM DELTA INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR  
BRISTOL BAY. SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OF  
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER  
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASING FURTHER SOUTH.  
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH  
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF  
AN INCH OF RAIN. EXPECT A STEADY, BUT NOT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW OF COOLER AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEHIND THE FRONT.  
THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TODAY FOR THE  
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE LOW 60S FOR COASTAL BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY.  
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE FRONT EXITS TO SOUTHCENTRAL, RETURNING  
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO A DRIER REGIME SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY SITS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING  
SEA, KEEPING THE WEATHER IN THE REGION MOSTLY BENIGN, DOMINATED  
BY WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG. TODAY, A KAMCHATKA  
LOW PUSHES ITS FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA, BRINGING WITH IT  
A NEW SOURCE OF RAIN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. A CORRIDOR OF GALES ARE  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY  
SUNDAY MORNING, SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA ON  
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD  
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT  
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE BERING SEA TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ASHORE OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA  
COAST. ROUGHLY AROUND THE SAME TIME, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A  
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND  
REINVIGORATES THE FRONT. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND GALE  
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL  
ALEUTIANS, ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, TO ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM  
DELTA COAST. MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS  
REINVIGORATED FRONT, AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS BRINGS  
LOW, BUT NON-ZERO CONCERN FOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COMMUNITIES  
OF KIPNUK AND KWIGILLINGOK. CURRENTLY, THE WIND FORECAST IS  
UNCERTAIN, AND THE SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOODING IS TIED TO THE  
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT WATER LEVELS ARE  
NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 2 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE FOR  
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
BE STRONGEST. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THE FORECAST IS  
REFINED.  
 
-CL/CQ  
 

 
 
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY)...  
 
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUESDAY  
WHILE BROAD TROUGHING COVERS THE BERING SEA FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE  
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A SURFACE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS SET TO PULL IN AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE  
PACIFIC, DELIVERING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST  
WITH MODERATE RAIN TUESDAY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH  
BAYS AND PASSES OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL ALSO ENHANCE AS THIS  
FEATURE PHASES WITH A STOUT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIGHT.  
 
THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND, BRINGING MOST OF  
SOUTHERN ALASKA SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS, MODEL  
AGREEMENT DETERIORATES SIGNIFICANTLY. MOST OF THE STATE WILL BE  
UNDER PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE  
PATTERN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE  
GENERALLY IN THE 60'S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS.  
LIGHT TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH  
THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE  
TERMINAL.  
 

 
 

 
 
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