696
FXAK68 PAFC 110015
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS PROMOTED THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY, COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN
RANGES PERSISTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WELL. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING, AND MAY ALSO WORK TO CONTINUE SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR
THE ANCHORAGE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD, MOVING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL TO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FAVORABLE GAPS SUCH AS
SEWARD AND WHITTER MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS. BOTH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL EASE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH FULLY EXITS OUT OF THE REGION. THE DOMINANT PRESSURE REGIME
FOR THE REGION WILL BECOME A RIDGE, PROMOTING CLEARER, WARMER,
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INTO MIDWEEK. THERE IS
THE CHANCE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR
MARINE ZONES SUCH AS COOK INLET, OTHERWISE THIS WOULD MARK THE
RETURN TO A CLEARER PATTERN IN SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-CL
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF
CLEARING STRETCHING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA UP INTO BRISTOL BAY
AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS HAS ALLOWED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH KING
SALMON SITTING AT 60 DEGREES CURRENTLY. FURTHER INLAND, CLOUD
COVER IS SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH BETHEL UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER WHERE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOMORROW WITH GREATER
CLEARING AND A WARMER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD IS AN
OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ITS COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL BECOME
ELONGATED, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE FRONT'S SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IT OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY AND ONLY TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF A NORTON SOUND TROUGH ON TUESDAY WILL BISECT THE FRONT
WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT'S PROGRESS, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NORTON SOUND, SOUTHWESTWARD,
INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
WEAKER AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
FOR SOUTHWEST, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WHAT REMAINS OF A FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVE
INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE IS THE EXPECTED TO REBUILD
OVER THE BERING TO THE WEST. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK ROUND OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
FINALLY, COASTAL FLOODING CONCERN REMAINS LOW AND UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING, BUT NON-ZERO, FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF KIPNUK AND
KWIGILLINGOK. WATER LEVELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED 2 FEET ABOVE
THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE DURING THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED EROSION DUE TO ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE COAST.
THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
BERING SEA.
BL/CQ
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH SHORTWAVES LOCALLY ENHANCING WEATHER AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND ON THURSDAY, DRAWING UP SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS FEATURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAINLAND, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
STILL LIKELY AT THIS POINT, BUT WE WILL BE TRACKING THIS GOING
FORWARD.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, LIKELY
PLAGUING MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH LOW STRATUS. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORABLE BAYS AND PASSES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RIDING ABOVE THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, A GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD SETTLE IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ALONG WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CEILINGS AND/OR VIS TO DIP INTO MVFR LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL. THE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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