994
FXAK68 PAFC 111323
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT MON AUG 11 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRAVERSING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GULF COAST THEN DIVING DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AND INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
NEAR VALDEZ EVEN RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH OVERALL SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY THEN WARMING TOMORROW AS
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE COPPER BASIN WILL SEE
A DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL NEGATE
THE BULK OF ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BY MIDWEEK, A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY)...
SYNOPTICALLY, A BERING LOW MOVES TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH
MID- WEEK. ITS FRONT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS AND REACHES THE
SOUTHWEST COAST TOMORROW BRINGING ONSHORE WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
A BERING LOW BRINGS AN ELONGATED FRONT THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS
TODAY REACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT AND GALE FORCE
GAP WINDS IN THE BERING AND BRISTOL BAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST, COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS A LOW CONCERN DESPITE
THIS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR SUCH IMPACTS FOR THE COMMUNITIES
OF KIPNUK AND KWIGILLINGOK. HOWEVER, THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WIND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED EROSION ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.
THEREFORE, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
MORNING TO LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. A WEAK LOW FORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN GAP WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, WINDS DECREASE
AND COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALEUTIANS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
-JOHNSTON
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH SHORTWAVES LOCALLY ENHANCING WEATHER AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND ON THURSDAY, DRAWING UP SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THIS FEATURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAINLAND, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
STILL LIKELY AT THIS POINT, BUT WE WILL BE TRACKING THIS GOING
FORWARD.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, LIKELY
PLAGUING MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WITH LOW STRATUS. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORABLE BAYS AND PASSES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RIDING ABOVE THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, A GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD SETTLE IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
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