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FZAK30 PAFC 282032
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1232 PM AKDT THURSDAY 28 AUGUST 2025
…AUGUST 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
DURING THE PAST MONTH, SEASONAL MELT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MULTI-YEAR ICE AND FIRST YEAR THICK ICE
REMAINING IN THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS. THE ICE EDGE LOOKS VERY
CLOSE IN POSITION TO WHERE IT WAS IN LATE-JULY. HOWEVER, THE
INTERIOR OF THE PACK ICE ITSELF HAS NOTICEABLY STARTED TO DEGRADE
AND THIN FROM AN AREAL PERSPECTIVE. PACK ICE REMAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BEAUFORT GYRE WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS
OF MULTI-YEAR ICE RESIDE. OTHERWISE THE AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH
THAT WERE PREDOMINATELY FIRST-YEAR ICE HAVE MELTED QUITE A BIT INTO
THE LOWER END OF MARGINAL ICE, EVEN SOME OPEN WATER IN THE HIGH
ARCTIC.
AS WE LOOK FORWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF BREAK-UP AND INTO THE
FIRST MONTH OR SO OF FREEZE-UP, ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE ARE STILL GREATER THAN
NORMAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT
SEA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS ICE MAY DELAY SEASONAL BREAK-UP BY A WEEK
OR TWO. RECENTLY MELTED OLD ICE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA BETWEEN POINT
BARROW AND POINT FRANKLIN HAS RESULTED IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AN EARLIER FREEZE UP IN THE AREA THAN IN
RECENT YEARS. AS THE SEA ICE MINIMUM WILL LIKELY BE AROUND MID-
SEPTEMBER, FREEZE-UP LOOKS TO BE EARLIER THAN NORMAL AS THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF ICE LEFT IN THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
THERE ARE GREATER THAN NORMAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN THIS AREA WHICH HAS SLOWED MELTING COMPARED
TO RECENT YEARS.C
FOR ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW WEST TO 170W, SEA ICE CONCENTRATION
WILL NOT REACH THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION UNTIL THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE
LINGERING IN THIS AREA. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS MAY NOT HAPPEN THIS YEAR, BUT IF THEY DO IT WILL BE
DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT, SEA ICE
CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE LAST WEEK
OF AUGUST.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, SEA ICE
WILL REACH THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER AND SEA ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT,
SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS
MAY NOT HAPPEN THIS SEASON AS THERE IS A BAND OF MULTI-YEAR ICE
BETWEEN 72N AND 74N. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THAT ICE FREE
CONDITIONS HAPPEN CLOSER TO 75N.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. ICE
FREE CONDITIONS MAY NOT HAPPEN THIS SEASON AS THERE IS A BAND OF
MULTI-YEAR ICE BETWEEN 72N AND 74N. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE THAT
ICE FREE CONDITIONS HAPPEN CLOSER TO 75N.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N, A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY MULTI-YEAR ICE EXISTS BETWEEN 71N AND 73N. THREE
TENTHS CONCENTRATION MAY NOT HAPPEN IN THIS AREA, BUT IS MORE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 73N AND 75N. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THIS SEASON.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA…
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNTS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE ARE STILL PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA. CURRENTLY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ALL OF
THIS ICE TO MELT OUT COMPLETELY. IF THAT IS THE CASE, WATERS WILL BE
PRIMED TO FREEZE FASTER THAN IN RECENT YEARS.
NEW SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE ICE PACK DURING THE THIRD
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
NEW SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING NEAR FRESHWATER RIVER
DELTAS AND BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER,
BUT COULD BE AS EARLY AS THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
THE FIRST SEA ICE FORMATION BEYOND BARRIER ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-OCTOBER. NAVIGATIONAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVEN
TENTHS CONCENTRATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
SEA ICE WILL LIKELY BEGIN FORMING SOUTH FROM THE MAIN ICE PACK
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER OR THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
THE MAIN ICE PACK SHOULD MERGE WITH THE NEW SEA ICE ALONG THE ALASKA
COAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER OR FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA…
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW, THE FIRST NEW
SEA ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER.
SEVEN TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.
SEA ICE WITHIN NAVIGATIONAL WATERS AROUND POINT BARROW MAY REACH
SEVEN TENTHS CONCENTRATION BY THE END OF OCTOBER, BUT IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW OFFSHORE WEST TO 170W, THE FIRST NEW
ICE IS EXPECTED IN LATE-OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS OF ICE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. ICE COVERED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT HOPE TO ICY CAPE, THE FIRST SEA
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. THIS
AREA MAY REACH THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION BY THE END OF OCTOBER, BUT
IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
FOR WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, DATES OF FREEZE-UP ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM YEAR TO YEAR. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
OF ICE NOT COMPLETELY MELTING OUT, FREEZE-UP SHOULD BE QUICKER THAN
RECENT YEARS. THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND MID-
OCTOBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
WITHIN KOTZEBUE SOUND, THE FIRST SEA ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS COVERAGE COULD HAPPEN
BY THE END OF OCTOBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE FIRST HALF
OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-NOVEMBER.
FOR CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, THE FIRST NEW ICE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND MID-NOVEMBER.
FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG, THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE BEHIND BARRIER
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG THE FIRST NEW ICE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR WALES TO POINT HOPE TO 170W, THREE TENTHS COVERAGE OF ICE IS
EXPECTED AROUND LATE-NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE COULD HAPPEN IN
LATE-NOVEMBER BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING EARLY DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE FORMATION WITHIN NORTON SOUND IS GENERALLY
WITHIN NORTON BAY AND GOLOVIN BAY AND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
MID-OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS ALONG THE YUKON DELTA, THE FIRST NEW SEA ICE
FORMATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN
TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, THE FIRST NEW SEA
ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER OR THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. SEVEN TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER.
FOR BRISTOL BAY, THE FORMATION ICE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK AND
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR PULLED IN FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
FIRST ICE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER, BUT COULD
BE DELAYED TO LATE NOVEMBER OR EVEN DECEMBER.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SEA ICE IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL AND
DURATION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THE PREVAILING
STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHETHER INTO BRISTOL
BAY, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, OR TOWARD THE PANHANDLE, DICTATES WHEN
ICE FORMS AND IF IT IS ALLOWED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
FOR NORTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO PT. POSSESSION, THE
FIRST SEA ICE IS POSSIBLE IN LATE OCTOBER, BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE
FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER.
SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SUSITNA DELTA TO POINT POSSESSION TO THE
FORELANDS, THE FIRST ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NOVEMBER.
LAWSON/FENRICH
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