572
FXAK68 PAFC 051323
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
523 AM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PASSING ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND COOK INLET THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL
FOR THE COOK INLET COMMUNITIES IS OVER AND WHAT REMAINS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING IS LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. COOL AIR WITH A RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND TROUGH AND A BRIEF PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN.
EXPECTING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE COPPER RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AND EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TYPICAL GAPS RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...
CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. ITS FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS A RIDGE
WEAKENS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN). THE GALE-FORCE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS THE FRONT REACHES MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF MARINE LIGHTING STRIKES TODAY ACROSS THE BERING SEA
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION, STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS, BAYS, AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN AKPEN ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PEAK
WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS THROUGH COLD
BAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 TO 55 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GALE-FORCE WINDS REACH COASTAL SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. THE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY PUSH OF WIND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST LOOKS TO ALSO BRING INCREASED WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. RATHER, LOW-LYING AREAS FILLING UP AND INCREASED
WAVES/SURF ALONG THE COAST. TO BRING FURTHER AWARENESS TO THIS, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST/NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM BAY COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW ITSELF MOVES FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO IN THE VICINITY OF ETOLIN STRAIT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST/COAST TO INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS
OFF THE BERING MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT LOOKS TO TRACK
CLOSE TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK. OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE
WILL BE A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LOCATED IN KAMCHATKA AND WHETHER
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ALLOW THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO TRACK
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CHAIN OR KEEP THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY FROM
KAMCHATKA WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WITH FEW IMPACTS TO THE CHAIN. CONVERSELY, A WEAKER
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM KAMCHATKA WOULD ALLOW FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BRING IN HEAVIER
RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS TO THE CHAIN. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS
DETAILS ON THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE IRONED OUT.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A GALE OR POTENTIALLY STORM-FORCE
LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. TO THE
EAST, A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
FAVORED AS A FORMER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN AND
DEPOSITS ITS MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. THE TROUGH EXITS EAST INTO
YUKON BY TUESDAY, WITH A QUICKLY-PROGRESSING RIDGE MOVING IN TO
REPLACE IT ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AS A RESULT, RAIN
SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IMPACTS FROM THE POTENTIALLY STORM-FORCE
LOW, AS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIALLY AS STRONG AS
STORM FORCE. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL ALSO BE TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER SOURCED
FROM TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
JAPAN) AND STRONG DYNAMICS WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY, THE LOW TRACKS NEAR OR ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA OR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA. THE
OCCLUDING LOW BEGINS TO LOSE SOME OF ITS MOISTURE TAP AND
STRENGTH, THOUGH ITS FRONT, DEPENDING ON TRACK, MAY LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION CONCERNS ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD NEGATE THIS POTENTIAL. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA, REGARDLESS OF TRACK. IN GENERAL, THE LOW APPEARS STRONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS LOW, SO WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER THAN WHAT IS SEEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE LOW TRACKS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF BRISTOL BAY TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY. ITS FRONT PUSHES EAST ALONG THE GULF OF
ALASKA COAST, WHERE IT MAY CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW LIKELY ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL TO
PUSH PAST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL AT TIMES.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND, WITH HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE COAST. FOR THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MID-WEEK,
THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY MESSY AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURE'S LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
QUESADA
AVIATION
PANC...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING ALONG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR AS LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERSIST WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RAINFALL. EXPECT STEADY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
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