953
FXAK68 PAFC 071333
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
GAP WINDS IN THE COPPER RIVER AND KNIK WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL AT
LEAST TONIGHT. TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS HAVE ALSO MADE THEIR WAY
TOWARD ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING AND WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY, BREEZY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR SOUTH
AND WEST ANCHORAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIT-AND-MISS SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND
PUSH NORTH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING
FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA COASTLINE, SPREADING TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN TOWARD CORDOVA AND
EASTWARD FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ALASKA RANGE
NEAR NORTHWESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY COULD ALSO SEE SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MEANS ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IS A CONCERN INTO THE
YENTNA AND SKWENTNA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THESE RIVERS ARE ALREADY BANKFULL AND
HAVE NOT HAD ENOUGH TIME FOR THEIR WATERS TO RECEDE FURTHER.
SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON MONDAY, BUT FALL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD TOWARD THE MAINLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY THIS MORNING, A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND YUKON DELTA COASTS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE
TROUGH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA FROM THE BERING, WILL KEEP THE
WET/SHOWERY PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER-MAKER IS CURRENTLY GETTING
ITS ACT TOGETHER IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING. EX-TYPHOON
PEIPAH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AND ITS FRONT WILL REACH
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WHILE THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK, WINDS WERE NUDGED UP TO
LOW-END SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE (50 KTS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WESTERN ALEUTIAN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN MARINE ZONES ON BOTH
THE NORTH PACIFIC SIDE AND BERING SIDE FOR MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE TWO PEAKS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE FIRST WILL BE TONIGHT WHERE EASTERLY WINDS GUST UP
TO 60 MPH AT TIMES. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES BY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
PICK UP IN EARNEST MID-MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT
OF THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WINDS WITH THIS
SECOND ROUND OCCUR LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AT
TIMES. A FEW LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR 75 MPH GUSTS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO BRING FURTHER
AWARENESS TO THE STRONG WINDS COMING TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ALSO OF NOTE, ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND THE 2 INCH
MARK ACROSS ADAK AND ATKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEYOND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STORM CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY
EVENING WITH ITS FRONT PUSHING TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN). LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FAVORED GAPS, BAYS,
AND PASSES OF THE SOUTHERN AKPEN MONDAY WITH PEAK WINDS OCCURRING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH COLD BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TUESDAY MORNING, THE STORM CENTER TRACKS TO JUST SOUTH OF
UNIMAK PASS AS ITS FRONT ADVANCES UP THE AKPEN AND INTO BRISTOL
BAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MOVE INTO PORT HEIDEN AND PILOT
POINT TUESDAY WITH MOST RAIN STAYING CONFINED TO THE NORTH PACIFIC
SIDE OF THE AKPEN DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING NATURE OF THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE BERING SIDE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST (TOGIAK TO DILLINGHAM) AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN CAPES TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
RAIN EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEFORMATION RAIN BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND PIVOT BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
THE STORM MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE RAIN HAS LARGELY SHUT OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY THEN, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. RAIN
CONTINUES FOR THE AKPEN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AKPEN. A RIDGE BUILDS AND
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY THEN.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BROAD ~982 MB LOW
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS BEING GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A 25 TO 30 KNOT BARRIER JET
JUST OUTSIDE OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE LOW.
THE LOW QUICKLY FILLS IN AND DIMINISHES THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE
GUIDANCE HAS IT PERSISTING AS A WEAK STATIONARY LOW INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO WINDS, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR
COASTAL AREAS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST FURTHER INLAND. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
ON WEDNESDAY COULD ALSO LEND ITSELF TO NORTHERLY GAP FLOW INTO
KACHEMAK BAY AND RESURRECTION BAY.
TO THE WEST AND OVER THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, ZONAL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN MILDER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BL
AVIATION
PANC...BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TERMINAL AS
SHOWERS PUSHING NORTH UP COOK INLET INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, BUT CEILINGS
MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR MID-DAY BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
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