707
FXAK68 PAFC 081352
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
552 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND COOK
INLET THIS MORNING. A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
TODAY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER CONTINUED THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT LAST NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY. MEANWHILE, A FRONT
ARRIVES TO THE WESTERN GULF SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ITS PARENT LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WILL
TRACK INTO THE GULF FOR WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS THE ROBUST
SYSTEMS APPROACHES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH GALES ALONG
THE FRONT AND LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, A BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE TO TWO INCHES IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS. UPSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN,
SUCH AS THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND, COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES.
TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS COMMUNITIES ALONG COOK INLET,
ROUGHLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED. FARTHER INLAND, A
TENTH TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN GENERAL ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST COULD VARY BASED ON HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING THERE WILL BE FOR COOK INLET AND FARTHER INLAND. MODELS
DIFFER WITH THIS DEPICTION, BUT THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS
THAT A PUSH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITHIN
COOK INLET TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DEGREE OF
DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY RESUME AGAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NONE-THE-LESS, WET AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A LOW PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER
TYPHOON PEIPAH IS NOW SITUATED JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF ADAK. THIS
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING, WITH A CENTRAL
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE AT OR JUST BELOW 980 MB. THE WIND FIELD
ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW IS NOW APPROACHING
STORM FORCE, WITH A WIDER SWATH OF GALES EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND ALONG THE LOW'S FRONT OUT TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-END STORM FORCE WINDS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO TRAIL RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW, PROGRESSING INTO AND
AROUND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AS THE CENTER SKIRTS JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE LOWS'S
OCCLUDED FRONT IS ALSO IMPACTING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, AND THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AS THE LOW MARCHES STEADILY EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTED
BY LARGE SCALE LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE LOW IS
ALSO HELPING TO FUEL OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE LOW'S MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN FOCUSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST, SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUD COVER ARE DRIFTING UNDER
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING TOWARDS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS REMAINS
ON TRACK, WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE ALEUTIANS STILL
CAPTURING NEARLY ALL OF THE ATTENTION. BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE EAST, MOVING NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
SAND POINT EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE
LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
VERTICALLY STACKED AND AS THE CENTRAL LOWEST PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RISE. EVEN SO, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL PACK A PUNCH AS
THEY ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE AKPEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING
WELL INTO GALE FORCE RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN BERING AND
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THOUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STARTING
EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW'S OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED WHERE WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THE KAMISHAK GAP,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ILIAMNA AND IGIUGIG AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
LATE ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE GULF AS
LINGERING WINDS ACROSS THE AKPEN AND SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO SPILL INTO SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO PLACE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
-AS
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT NUDGES AGAINST THE NORTH
GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING PROLONGED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA, HEAVY AT TIMES. INLAND PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. VALLEYS AND THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS AS
THE LOW CENTER PUSHES NORTH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
OUT WEST AND OVER THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, ZONAL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN MILDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINDS AND RAIN, OR TRACK WELL SOUTH BRINING LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS TO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR SAID LOW TO PUSH TOWARDS OR INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
BUT EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG ALEUTIAN LOW ENTERS THE
WESTERN GULF.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page