056
FXAK68 PAFC 121343
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
543 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, THOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CELLULAR LOOK ON THE
RADAR, MANY AREAS ARE GOING TO BE REFERRED TO AS SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. THIS DOES NOT MEAN LIGHT RAIN, BUT RATHER, DUE TO
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES CAUSING THE RAIN, THEY WILL BE MORE VARIABLE
IN RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH SOME PERIODS OF NO RAIN AND POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ON THE WEATHER MAP, IT DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH THE WEAKENING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, AND THE
SEASON'S FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT HANGING OUT JUST WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL IN THE AREA OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT AND THEREFORE THE CONTINUING PRECIPITATION. AND
YES, AS WE ARE INTO THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER, WE DO NEED TO START
REFERRING TO PRECIPITATION AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOW FAR DOWN THE
MOUNTAINS THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT REMAINS A QUESTION, BUT IN
GENERAL, THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE. THE PLACE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH A
HIGHWAY IS ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY THROUGH BROAD PASS FRIDAY
NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SNOW THERE, SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT UNLIKELY FOR MUCH TO STICK TO ROADWAYS
SOUTH OF CANTWELL.
BY SATURDAY, THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH LEFT OF THE LOW TO SEE IN THE
SURFACE MAPS, THOUGH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONTINUOUS SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. FOR SUNDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE UNCLEAR AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS POISED TO LIFT TO
NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR EAST OR WEST THE STORM WILL TRACK AS IT HEADS INTO THE GULF,
BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE A LITTLE AND INDICATING A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE. THIS MEANS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION WILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND FOR KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL BE LOOKING TO THE NEXT NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY
CONFIRM THIS THINKING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA, AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. BROAD,
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. AT THE
SURFACE, VARIOUS WEAK LOWS EXIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALLOWING
FOR PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER OR
NOT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO NUDGE IN
THAT DIRECTION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH A
COLDER AIRMASS PULLED SOUTH OUT OF THE INTERIOR HAVE DROPPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND, SHOULD SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WILL BE THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL.
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE MILD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW TRAVERSING WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
LOOKING TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND A CORRIDOR OF GALES
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN STORY
BEING A PAIR OF LOWS BRINGING WIND AND RAIN FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN FEATURE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A LARGE 980-990 MB SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GULF FOR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKELY TO PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY MORNING AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ENHANCED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A GALE-FORCE BARRIER JET OUTSIDE OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FARTHER WEST, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE KAMCHATKA
REGION AND NORTH PACIFIC LOOK TO MERGE AS THEY ENTER THE WESTERN
BERING, SHIFTING THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO A MORE
POSITIVE TILT OVER THE BERING. THIS BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM AS THE DECAYING SYSTEM IN THE
GULF GETS ABSORBED, FORMING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY AND TRACKS ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA, SPREADING RAINFALL
AND ELEVATED WINDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME, BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE GULF LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
WITH SPORADIC RAIN AS A SURFACE LOW LINGERS SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page