695
FXAK68 PAFC 140112
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...
THE BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE ARCTIC, ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST, PERSISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHCENTRAL ALSO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE A NICE AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS
ANCHORAGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL HELPING
TO DRY THINGS OUT. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG WITH A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PRICE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS TO ADVECT OVER ANCHORAGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE VICINITY OF PRINCE
WILLIAM, THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT RATHER A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THIS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
ACROSS ANCHORAGE BY LATE MORNING AND REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A CURRENTLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE RIDING EASTWARD
AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS STARTING TO TURN NORTHWARD
AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED ON SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP THE SURFACE LOW
TO FURTHER DEEPEN. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE
NORTHERN PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY AS RIDGES REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF
IT; ONE TO THE WEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA, AND
ONE TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WITH
THIS, THE TREND IN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO THE GULF BY A FEW HOURS. THE FRONT AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KODIAK SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GALE-FORCE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND MAKES
IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
AS IT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. WHILE STORM-FORCE GUSTS ARE VERY
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN GULF, HAVE OPTED FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO
REMAIN AT HIGH-END GALE-FORCE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
COMPLEX/MULTI-CENTERED NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ONE ARGUMENT FOR
A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WOULD BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT PIVOTS
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION AND HELPS TO REALLY
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST ADDING
EXTRA ENHANCEMENT TO THE EASTERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL NO DOUBT FALL ALONG
KODIAK ISLAND AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN DUE IN PART TO
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA, FROM NINILCHIK TO HOMER, COULD SEE ENHANCED RAIN AT
TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO BEING IN A BETTER POSITION FOR
LIFT. THE SUSITNA VALLEY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS THERE REMAINING MORE CONFINED TO THE ALASKA RANGE.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK AND
TRANSIENT LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TREK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OFFSHORE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF AND THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS A DEEPENING LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.
FURTHER WEST, A STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF A LOW DROPPING SOUTH
FROM KAMCHATKA BY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE SOME REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH END GALES AS IT INITIALLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW
FURTHER DEEPENS AS IT REACHES THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WIDESPREAD
STORM FORCE GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF SUSTAINED STORM
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW STALLS AND BEGINS TO ELONGATE IN THE
WESTERN BERING ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT FURTHER OCCLUDES AND
WEAKENS TO SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. ADDITIONALLY, A
WIDESPREAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PRIOR TO THE WEAKENING OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA FOCUS ON THE WEATHER NARRATIVE SHIFTS FROM
THE GULF LOW THAT IS AFFECTING THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS NEW SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE ALASKAN PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, PARTICULARLY STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A NEW SYSTEM
IMPACT THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ALREADY
SOAKED REGION.
FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED FOR THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION
PANC...THE LOW STRATUS OVER THE INLET THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
CLEARED OUT AND/OR MOVED WEST OF THE TERMINAL. GIVEN THE RECENT
MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION TOMORROW MORNING,
STRATUS DOWN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT RAIN AROUND 15Z TOMORROW
MAY ALSO HELP TO LOWER CIGS AND VIS.
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