779
FXAK68 PAFC 141224
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
424 AM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROPAGATING OVER THE WESTERN CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS, THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH, THOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BY AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
(DEPENDING WHERE ONE IS IN SOUTHCENTRAL) IN THE HOURS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WILL NOW BE FROM
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS
ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE NORTHERN PROGRESSION TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS ON BOTH SIDES OF IT; ONE TO THE WEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE BERING SEA, AND ONE TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW AND HAVE MAINLY SETTLED ON THE FRONT
AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND IN EARNEST ON
SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN, WITH THE GULF COAST NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN DUE IN
PART TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA, FROM NINILCHIK TO HOMER, COULD SEE ENHANCED RAIN AT
TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO BEING IN A BETTER POSITION FOR
LIFT. THE SUSITNA VALLEY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS THERE REMAINING MORE CONFINED TO THE ALASKA RANGE.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOSTLY UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY OF DRY,
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. A LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL BRING INCREASED
NORTHERLY WINDS SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST, A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THIS EVENING, BRINGING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH A WIDE AREA
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THOUGH THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE
LOW CENTER MAY STALL BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NORTH OF AMCHITKA. THE
LOW'S FRONT STRETCHES INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. AFTER THE LOW STALLS BRIEFLY, THE CENTER
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE CHAIN LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA FOCUS ON THE WEATHER NARRATIVE SHIFTS FROM
THE GULF LOW THAT IS AFFECTING THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.THIS NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE ALASKAN PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A NEW SYSTEM IMPACT THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
OF ADDITIONAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ALREADY SOAKED
REGION.
FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED FOR THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK AND INTENSITIES.
AVIATION
PANC...AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL WILL CLEAR TO
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TO FORM AS RAIN ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IF SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND ALLOW THE SURFACE TO
RADIATE OUT AND COOL NEAR SURFACE AIR ENOUGH TO REACH SATURATION.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERIODS OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG, BUT A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR IS LIKELY BY AROUND
18Z AS LOW CLOUD COVER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
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