585
FXAK68 PAFC 142351
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS COMING TOGETHER NICELY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS AROUND 1PM THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS
SUSTAINED GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT HAVE ENTERED THE SOUTHERN GULF
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE FORECAST. THE GALE-FORCE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS IS
LIKELY MONDAY MORNING SOUTH OF KAYAK ISLAND. GALES WILL WRAP
AROUND THE REST OF THE WESTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND INCLUDING CHINIAK/MARMOT
BAYS MONDAY.
THE COMPLEX LOW CENTER MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL AND WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WITH GUSTY EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
KODIAK ISLAND SEES STEADY RAIN TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ANCHORAGE, THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA, AND THE MAT-SU VALLEYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NINILCHIK SOUTHWARD
TO HOMER WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN DUE TO BEING IN BETTER
POSITION FOR LIFT/FORCING FOR ASCENT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN
THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OVER THOSE AREAS. THIS LOW
LOOKS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND
MAKES IT TO THE NORTHERN GULF SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. THE NAM IS WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM. AS FAR AS TRACK AND
PROGRESSION ARE CONCERNED, THE NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE THE
FARTHEST EAST SOLUTIONS TAKING THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARDS THE
YAKUTAT AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND
WESTERN-MOST SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INLAND OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE GFS PRESENTS A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST BETWEEN
KAYAK ISLAND AND YAKUTAT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY REPRESENTS THIS LATTER SOLUTION. STAY TUNED AS
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE LIKELY REGARDING PLACEMENT, SPEED, AND
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT GULF LOW.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS AGAIN SEEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND DRY
WEATHER, WHILE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THE CALM CONDITIONS
AND BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AS A PAIR OF LOWS BRING MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK.
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GULF TONIGHT WILL
BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY WATERS AND
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH SMALL
CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARDS INTO THE
GULF, ALSO EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
FURTHER WEST, THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARRIVES THIS EVENING AS A GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
A WIDE AREA OF STORM FORCE GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TODAY ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH THE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST. THE FRONT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART AS IT
REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW
HANGS UP IN THE WESTERN BERING. THE LOW REDIRECTS TO TRACK ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERY WEATHER AND ELEVATED
WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
GENERALLY STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG AND PHASING WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS, THOUGH
WHERE THESE FEATURES WILL FORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. FOR NOW, THE STORM TRACK LOOKS TO CURVE ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND UP INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. STILL, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
REGARDING A GENERAL TREND FOR CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST, EVEN IF DETAILS LIKE SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MOVE UP COOK
INLET AND INTO THE MAT-SU VALLEYS.
-KC
AVIATION
PANC...LOW STRATUS AND FOG FROM THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY CLEARING
OUT OF THE AREA AND SHOULD BECOME VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, ANY CLEARING
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS TO IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING.
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