735
FXAK68 PAFC 210030
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
AREA, TRACKING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF. THE WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE AREAS, WHILE THE LAND AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REMAIN DRY. THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOR MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL,
WITH JUST SOME BANDS OF LINGERING CIRROSTRATUS. NEAR THE SURFACE,
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S. FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP THAT LOW
TONIGHT, SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO RADIATE OUT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE COPPER BASIN.
TROUGHING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE COAST FOR TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO
TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. A
LIFTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD, OCCLUDED LOW
LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRODUCES A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WIND
FIELD, LIKELY TO GALE FORCE, BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONGER. THE LOW PUSHES A FRONT TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, REINFORCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT LIFTS OVER THE COPPER BASIN, LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
THEREAFTER, THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IT LOOKS
TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS AS A RESULT OF THIS VARY BASED ON
TRACK, WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE COOK
INLET REGION WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AS WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM
THE GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON THIS LOW TRACK (CONTRARY TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLER
AIR TO FILTER IN). A FURTHER WEST LOW TRACK, TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA, WOULD INDUCE MORE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND THUS LEAVE
INLAND AREAS DOWNSLOPED AND DRY. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR IS FORECAST
TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, LEADING TO
NORTHWESTERLY GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF.
QUESADA
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)...
THE PLETHORA OF ALEUTIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUES. THE FIRST
SYSTEM, CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS RAIN FROM
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN)
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THIS LOW FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE GAPS
AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN HAVING THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. RAIN
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY CLIP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY. THE UNSTABLE AND COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN AKPEN, THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THEY WILL BE MORE IN THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS.
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS THIS AFTERNOON'S ALEUTIAN LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
IT BACK OVER SOUTHWEST MAY INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY FOR THURSDAY. A
COLD UPPER-LEVEL OVER KAMCHATKA ON FRIDAY IS POISED TO SEND
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING
STARTING THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING AS PORTIONS OF
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS BY THEN.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY - MONDAY)
CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA,
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA,
CAUSING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RARE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WESTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND FEW WEATHER IMPACTS TO HAMPER ONGOING RELIEF OPERATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY
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