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FXAK68 PAFC 221336
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
536 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A STRONG LOW IN CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH
ITS FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. NORTHERLY GAP WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE FOR
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, RESURRECTION BAY, AND VALDEZ ARM WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SNOWFALL AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ON THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR
THOMPSON PASS COULD LEAD TO THE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND, WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK NORTH, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS AND
IMPROVING VISIBILITIES. IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE BARREN ISLANDS, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS THAT LEAD TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND STRENGTHENS THE COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A CORRIDOR OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY PUSH
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARILY
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW PUSHING THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM, AS THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTH OF SEWARD, WILL FAVOR SOME MOISTURE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE. CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 30S, SO RAIN IS
FAVORED AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION, BUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHEN PRECIPITATION FALLS OVERNIGHT
(DURING THE DAY, SNOW WILL BE UNLIKELY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER). PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY WITH ELEVATION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR PASSES. TOWARD THOMPSON PASS, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE ROAD SYSTEM WILL SEE
PRIMARILY RAIN. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ALONG THE GLENN HIGHWAY NEAR TAHNETA PASS AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE PRECIPITATION WORKS PAST THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM EAST, TURNAGAIN PASS MAY STAY MOSTLY
RAIN, BUT IF TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
TIMING WINDS OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY
ANOTHER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVING INTO THE GULF THURSDAY
AND A TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SINKING INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
OVERALL, A GENERALLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. EACH FEATURE EMBEDDED
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WIND OUTCOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
QUESADA/RUX
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND INLAND KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM ANIAK TO BETHEL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE AREA INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
CONFINED TO THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS TOMORROW NIGHT. COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WHILE
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER BETWEEN BETHEL AND ANIAK CAN
EXPECT BETWEEN 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW STARTS IN EARNEST TODAY AS THE LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PHASES WITH THE GULF LOW.
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHOWERY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CONTINUE STREAMING DOWN OVER
THE EASTERN BERING AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS
TIME. STRONG WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE
ONE LAST PUSH OF INCREASED WINDS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DYING DOWN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BEGIN IMPACTING
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY, BRINGING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SHOWERS
AND ENHANCED WINDS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY - TUESDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IN SOUTHCENTRAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
GAP REGIONS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND ON SATURDAY, BUT THE EXACT
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK IN CONFIDENCE
OF THE LOW'S POSITION. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST
IS LIKELY WITH THIS LOW. A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING FOR LINGERING RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST, BUT LIGHTER WINDS
IN GAP REGIONS. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY,
BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND
EXTENT OF THIS FRONT, SO WINDS AND RAIN COULD BE MORE OR LESS.
TUESDAY IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY REACHES ITS MAXIMUM. SOME KIND OF LOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF, BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
ITS POSITION, STRENGTH, AND SIZE. DETAILS WILL BE CLARIFIED AS
TUESDAY DRAWS CLOSER.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS LESS UNCERTAINTY, BUT SOLUTIONS DO VARY TO
AN EXTENT. A LARGE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, WITH ITS FRONT BRINGING LINE OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE BERING, EVEN INCLUDING THE COASTAL
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. INCLUDING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE LOW DROPS
INTO ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE ALEUTIANS. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE LOW WILL DROP AND WINDS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. MONDAY SEES THE LOW TRAVERSE EASTWARD,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING GAP WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DEPENDING
ON ITS TRACK. TUESDAY SEES A FRONT FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW PUSH INTO
THE BERING. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS THE
LOW ENTERS THE BERING SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO ABOUT 10 KTS, BUT AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
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