086
FXAK68 PAFC 240221
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
621 PM AKDT THU OCT 23 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A TANDEM OF SURFACE LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON, ONE SOUTH OF SEWARD AND THE
SECOND EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONNECT THE TWO, WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM THE LATTER OF THE TWO LOWS EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE
TROUGH AND ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA.
THE RESULT IS A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH
A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE TROUGH. AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS - AND SNOW SHOWERS AT PASS LEVEL - HAVE DIMINISHED
FROM THOMPSON PASS AND CORDOVA THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO SLIDE SOUTH OF ANCHORAGE, WHERE PRECIPITATION FILLED
IN THIS MORNING DUE TO A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND DIMINISHED
NORTHERLY WIND AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
LIFTING NORTH AND MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THE LOW NEAR SEWARD
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THESE FEATURES LIFT NORTH AND MULTIPLE WEAK VORTICITY LOBES
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN COOK INLET,
ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND MAT-SU VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO MOVE
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. LIKE EARLY TODAY, JUST ENOUGH WARM
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW LEVEL FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 1,800 FT, BUT FALLING TO AROUND 1,200 FT BY
EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEING TO MOVE IN IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING TROUGH.
AGAIN, A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THOMPSON
PASS AND AROUND AN INCH OR SO TOWARD EUREKA AND PAXSON. AS THE LOW
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WEAKENS ON FRIDAY, A NEW LOW WILL SPIN UP
EAST OF KODIAK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FORM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHERN COOK INLET INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL LINGER
ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS, AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
TM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING)...
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A BROAD LOW IN THE GULF AND
IS NOW BEING AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN). OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
AND EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SNOW MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS
SLEETMUTE FOR FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THERE.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING, ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, AKPEN, AND NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN PERSIST. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10S TO 20S FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD. ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS, EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE AKPEN TO THE NORTH PACIFIC DIMINISHING
SATURDAY MORNING. THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS, AROUND 50 KTS, WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN, BAYS, AND PASSES FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY MORNING.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AS IT MOVES MORE INTO THE BERING
BY THIS WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS. AS PUSHES OF COLD AIR COME DOWN
KAMCHATKA, PRECIPITATION MAY BE SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN WITH ANY RAIN BY THEN. THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MORE IN THE WAY
OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THEY WILL BE MORE IN THE
HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BERING, VIA THE KAMCHATKA UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EASTERN BERING, NUNIVAK ISLAND,
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MORE SHORTWAVES COMING FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT
SNOW AT TIMES ALONG NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WHERE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE
IS WHERE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES MAY GENERATE LITTLE SURFACE LOWS
IN THE BERING SEA AND WHERE THEY MAY TRACK. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACKS OF TIGHTLY WOUND SURFACE LOWS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, AND ENHANCED
WINDS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THESE LITTLE
LOWS IN THE BERING AND WHERE THEY MIGHT TRACK.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE DEFINING FEATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. ENTRAINMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE ALASKAN
ARCTIC, GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BERING AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
COLDER AIR SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF.
A TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL SIGNAL MOIST,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE COPPER BASIN, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN A TRACK HIGHER IN THE GULF WITH COLDER, DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN BAND SHIFTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DURATION OF FRIDAY, WITH SOME
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ANC. WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH FRIDAY, LOW-LEVEL WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 20Z AND 00Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS.
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