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FXAK68 PAFC 241321
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING. WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND UPPER COOK INLET IS PERSISTING AND A WAVE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
UNDER PERSISTENT FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS SHOWERS HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH
PACIFIC, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SHELIKOF STRAIT AND KODIAK
ISLAND WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY TRACK EAST, BUT BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND STALL
NEAR THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. MEANWHILE, REMAINING EASTERLY
DISTURBANCES COULD CONVERGE WITH THIS TROUGH LEADING TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND AROUND COOK INLET AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY DECREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PRESSURE STARTING TO
FILL IN, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
GULF OF ALASKA COASTLINE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL
SNOW.
LOOKING AT THE WEEK AHEAD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
AND GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND GAP WINDS COULD
ALSO RETURN. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES
THAT COULD AFFECT THE WIND AND PRECIPITATION OUTCOME, BUT
GENERALLY THE WEATHER APPEARS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE COOLER. SUBTLE CHANGES COULD
LEAD TO DIFFERENT OUTCOMES HOWEVER, EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT
PATTERN.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE
BERING SEA, AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW/RAIN AS
SHORTWAVES EMANATE OFF BROAD UPPER LOWS IN EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AS
MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY DETERMINING WHERE THE SHORTWAVES'
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK, WHICH CONSEQUENTLY AFFECT
THE WIND SPEED AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
DIVING INTO THE DETAILS... SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A
BROAD LOW IN THE GULF. OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOST ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. SNOW MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS SLEETMUTE TODAY WITH A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THERE.
THE COLD AIR MASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE
10S TO 20S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS, EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
THROUGH THE AKPEN TO THE NORTH PACIFIC DIMINISHING TOMORROW
MORNING. THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS, AROUND 50 KTS, WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN, BAYS, AND PASSES THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
FARTHER TO THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA BEGINS TO
ELONGATE AS IT MOVES MORE INTO THE BERING BY THIS WEEKEND.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND KEEP THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS. AS PUSHES OF COLD AIR COME DOWN KAMCHATKA, PRECIPITATION
MAY BE SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG PUSH OF
COLD AIR REACHES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BEGINNING TO MIX IN
WITH ANY RAIN BY THEN. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY AS THEY WILL BE MORE IN THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BERING, VIA THE KAMCHATKA UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE EASTERN BERING, NUNIVAK ISLAND,
AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST LATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MORE SHORTWAVES COMING FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT
SNOW AT TIMES ALONG NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WHERE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE
IS WHERE ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVES MAY GENERATE LITTLE SURFACE LOWS
IN THE BERING SEA AND WHERE THEY MAY TRACK. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACKS OF TIGHTLY WOUND SURFACE LOWS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, AND ENHANCED
WINDS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING THESE LITTLE
LOWS IN THE BERING AND WHERE THEY MIGHT TRACK.
-DAN/KC
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE DEFINING FEATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. ENTRAINMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE ALASKAN
ARCTIC, GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BERING AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
COLDER AIR SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF.
A TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL SIGNAL MOIST,
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE COPPER BASIN, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN A TRACK HIGHER IN THE GULF WITH COLDER, DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR WITH DIPS INTO MVFR DURING SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING AND LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A PUSH OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
AND TURNAGAIN ARM COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR LLWS BETWEEN
18Z AND 00Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW LLWS THRESHOLDS.
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