034
FXAK68 PAFC 250047
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
447 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE
TROUGHS/LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO MOVE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST INTO
LATE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN GULF AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN FROM
THE WEST.
THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES HAS ALREADY MOVED WEST OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND IS SITTING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAIN THAT FELL FROM ANCHORAGE TO HOMER THIS MORNING NOW
SITTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO AUGUSTINE
ISLAND. THE SECOND IS MOVING ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND (PWS) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CORDOVA TO WHITTIER
AND SEWARD. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OVER COOK INLET TONIGHT, STALL,
AND ELONGATE AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE
INTO PWS OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TRACKING EAST TO WEST OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE CHALLENGE WITH
THIS WAVE IS HOW IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE PREVIOUS AND ALLOW FOR
LIGHT SNOW, OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW, TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA NORTH TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY; HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
RESULT MAY BE ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG COOK INLET
WITH A DUSTING OR SO CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE SATURDAY, BUT WILL NOT
TAPER OFF ENTIRELY, AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER LOW OVER THE GULF.
BY SUNDAY, A WAVE MOVING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND FRONT LIFTING NORTH AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
TO THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION WORKING
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, ACROSS COOK INLET AND THE WESTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN FOR MONDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE COOLING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO GROUND LEVEL AND
PRECIPITATION TO WRING OUT AS SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION;
HOWEVER, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCATIONS FROM HOMER
AND SEWARD NORTH TO PALMER AND WASILLA COULD SEE THEIR FIRST
MEASURABLE (1"+) SNOW OF THE SEASON.
-TM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, GUSTS THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN,
BAYS, AND PASSES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN,
THERE IS SOME RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, INCLUDING BETHEL FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOG IS NOT GUARANTEED AS IT WILL DEPEND A
LOT ON CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE FOR SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
BERING SEA, ALEUTIANS, AKPEN, AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA. THIS LOW WILL ELONGATE AND CREATE
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH WITH WHERE
MESO-SCALE SHORTWAVES TRACK AS THEY MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, NUNIVAK ISLAND, AND ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST.
THE TIME WINDOWS FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN A LITTLE BREAK BEFORE LIGHT SNOW RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, AS
STATED ABOVE, WITH WHERE A POTENTIAL COMPACT LOW TRACKS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH SNOW. AS FOR COASTAL BRISTOL BAY, THE TIME WINDOW
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR BOTH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST AND COASTAL BRISTOL BAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, DEPENDING
ON WHERE COMPACT LOWS TRACK, SNOW TOTALS COULD RISE. SNOW CHANCES
A LONG THE COAST REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE COAST SNOW WILL OCCUR.
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN CHAIN, AND AKPEN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER
SEA SURFACE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT. THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS STAND TO BE MORE IN THE HEART OF THE COLD AIRMASS
AND COULD HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW AND
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A WARMER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING DESCENDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE PHASING WITH THE THE FIRST LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC
LOW CLOSELY FOLLOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND LIFTS INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO REPLACE THE FIRST SYSTEM WHICH MOVES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD AIR DRAWN SOUTH BY
THESE SYSTEMS WILL COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW, WHICH IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF AND COPPER BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW BUT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS AFTER
REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF, AND THE DIRECTION IT TAKES AFTER
LANDFALL. THE GFS FAVORS A PATH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERN PATH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE
DEGRADATION TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTH.
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