171
FXAK68 PAFC 251337
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE GULF LOW SLOWING MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE LOW, MOVING ALONG THE
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAK WAVE ROTATING ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COOK INLET. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM THE PAFC SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD BE
A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. IN ADDITION TO THESE SHOWERS, AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN WASILLA AND PALMER, AND DOWN ALONG THE GLENN
HIGHWAY TOWARDS EAGLE RIVER. SOME OF THE MORE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG
COULD CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREAS ROADS DEPENDING ON CURRENT
ROAD TEMPERATURES. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS
WE GET SOME COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MIX IN FROM THE WEST.
PRECIP TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE RATHER TRICKY AS
SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY DOWN THROUGH
COOK INLET. MODELS LOOK TO HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS
WESTWARDS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO CORRELATE WITH THIS
SHIFT. WITH THE GULF LOW STEADILY TRACKING EAST TODAY AND A LOW
BEGINNING TO DROP SOUTHWARDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING, RIDGING BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS WILL GET SQUISHED OVER THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY
REGION BEFORE DAMPENING OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER COOK
INLET THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SET-
UP FURTHER WEST AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TODAY.
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW NEARS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, INCREASING LIFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE TRICKY AND EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO CAN MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS RAIN OR SNOW. RIGHT NOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR
EASTERN RUSSIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH
MONDAY. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW,
WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES PRODUCING SURFACE TROUGHS AND
SURFACE LOWS. OVERALL, MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A LOT OF DIFFICULTY
HONING IN ON THESE WEAKER SURFACE FEATURES, WHICH IS LEADING TO
DIFFICULTY WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.
STILL, THE GENERAL PICTURE IS FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER,
WITH SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS AS
SURFACE TROUGHS/LOWS MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT OVERALL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A
HANDFUL OF INCHES OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS DEEPER LOWS MOVE
THROUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN
BLOWING SNOW IF TEMPERATURES DIP FAR ENOUGH BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER, POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE THIS MAY BE THE CASE. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST.
-KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING DESCENDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE PHASING WITH THE THE FIRST LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC
LOW CLOSELY FOLLOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND LIFTS INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO REPLACE THE FIRST SYSTEM WHICH MOVES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A COOLING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD AIR DRAWN SOUTH BY
THESE SYSTEMS WILL COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW, WHICH IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF AND COPPER BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW BUT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS AFTER
REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF, AND THE DIRECTION IT TAKES AFTER
LANDFALL. THE GFS FAVORS A PATH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERN PATH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE
DEGRADATION TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTH.
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