909
FXAK68 PAFC 260122
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
522 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY WHAT CAN BE CALLED A
SLOPPY PATTERN. A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD, BUT SHOWERY PRECIPITATION REMAINS. THE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT INTO THE MAINLAND AS WELL, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE, AND THE MAT-
SU VALLEY. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE STILL TOO HIGH SUN ANGLE AND TEMPERATURES
STILL ABOVE FREEZING. GUSTY GAP WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT IN
STRENGTH ARE BLOWING AROUND KODIAK ISLAND. TONIGHT, IT IS LIKELY
THAT FOG WILL ROLL IN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DUE TO
COOLER AIR MOVING OVER WARMING WATERS. THE FOG COULD FREEZE ONTO
SURFACES, CREATING SLICK AREAS ON SURFACES THAT DROP BELOW
FREEZING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TONIGHT. THIS SLOPPY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
HAVE CALMED DOWN IN THE GAP AREAS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND. SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE GULF AND THE COAST WITH
SOME SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND.
MONDAY IS WHEN SOMETHING MORE INTERESTING OCCURS. A FRONT LIFTS UP
INTO THE MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BARELY COLD ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. DUE TO THIS
FACT AND THE SUN ANGLE, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF THE FRONT. IF THE EVENT HAPPENS
LATER, TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY KIND OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT IF IT HAPPENS EARLIER, MORE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. STILL,
DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE FRONT, ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
1 INCH WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING MORE. IF
EVERYTHING SETS UP PERFECTLY, MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. THE SUSITNA VALLEY MAY ONLY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY. SLACK FLOW SETS UP AFTERWARDS
AND DRYS THE MAINLAND OUT. THE COASTAL REGIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. A LOW NEAR THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND, BUT THEY
WILL BE SUB-SMALL CRAFT.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
RUSSIA NEAR THE KAMCHATKA-CHUKOTKA BORDER EXTENDS COLD, UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA THIS EVENING. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
LEAD TO PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST (AND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA) THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH ANY GIVEN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE LOW, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE LIGHT, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
A FEW WEAK FRONTS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF
GUSTIER WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THESE FRONTS,
A TROUGH LOCATED NEAR KISKA LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP A STRONGER MESOLOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS WEAKER THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AND SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE MORE THAN A WEAK FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO
CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL
FOR A DEVELOPING MESOLOW TO BRING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL
EXTENT, BUT COULD INCLUDE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S,
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW MAY INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE
MILE OR LESS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE,
THESE CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THE
LOW NEAR RUSSIA DROPS ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY/OFFSHORE, BRINGING COLDER, DRIER AIR THAT DECREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. SHOWERY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEGINS TO ALIGN ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
QUESADA
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MERGING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE BERING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. MULTIPLE
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AND COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STORM TRACK ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND AKPEN. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
AKPEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO THE GULF MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK, A COLDER AIRMASS FILLS IN ACROSS THE BERING AND
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND, TRANSITIONING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE
BERING TO SNOW. MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
REMAINS AFTER REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF, AND THE DIRECTION IT
TAKES AFTER LANDFALL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM MODELS FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN PATH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
26/12Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 6Z
ALONG WITH IFR VIS AND CIGS ACCOMPANYING ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF
SNOW. AFTER 12Z, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS
CEILINGS DROP TO 1500 FT, ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
AROUND THE TERMINAL.
AB
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