303
FXAK68 PAFC 261333
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
533 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
THE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF YESTERDAY MORNING HAS MADE IT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS OF THIS MORNING, AND HAS WEAKENED EVEN
MORE. A VORT LOBE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW HAS LIFTED NORTH,
FORMING A COMPACT MESOLOW THAT IS ROTATION NEAR KAYAK ISLAND. WHILE
MOST OF THE MED AND LONG-RANGE MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF
PICKING UP ON THIS MESOLOW, THEIR PLACEMENT OF IT IS MUCH FURTHER
EAST OF WHERE IT CURRENTLY RESIDES. EVEN THE SHORT-RANGE AND CAM
MODELS HAVE PLACED THE LOW TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST, INCLUDING CORDOVA WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THIS LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE JUST OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. IF THE LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH EAST,
CORDOVA WOULD ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IF
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS, MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS, PATCHY FOG,
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...THOUGH SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT. THE MOST PROFICIENT AREA FOR SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN FROM THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS A STRONGER BAROCLINIC
ZONE HAS SET-UP DUE TO THE LOW IN THE GULF, LOW IN THE BERING, WEAK
RIDGING IN BETWEEN, AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REINVIGORATE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. A SURFACE LOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THEN
LIFT TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFT
INLAND. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THAT MOST AREAS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEY'S ON THE KENAI, SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THIS SETS UP, AREAS OVER PARTS OF
THE KENAI, ANCHORAGE BOWL, AND UP INTO THE MAT-SU VALLEY COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
WORKING INTO THE COPPER BASIN AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.
THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY PAST MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BERING LOW THEN LIFTING UP OVER
THE GULF. MODEL CONSISTENCY QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
RUSSIA NEAR THE KAMCHATKA-CHUKOTKA BORDER EXTENDS COLD, UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA. A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LEAD TO PERIODS OF
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS,
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST (AND PORTIONS OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY GIVEN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT, WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS UP TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A FEW WEAK FRONTS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING PERIODS OF GUSTIER WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A SURFACE LOW
THAT SPINS UP IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND MOVES TOWARDS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW; WITH THE LOW BEING VERY COMPACT, EVEN MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES
CAN HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH TO IMPACT THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S,
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW MAY INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE
MILE OR LESS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THE
LOW NEAR RUSSIA DROPS ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY/OFFSHORE, BRINGING COLDER, DRIER AIR THAT DECREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWERS TEMPERATURES. SHOWERY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEGINS TO ALIGN ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
LIKELY HELP SPIN UP A NEW GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OR ALASKA PENINSULA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE.
QUESADA/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM MERGING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE BERING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. MULTIPLE
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AND COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STORM TRACK ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND AKPEN. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
AKPEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO THE GULF
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, A COLDER AIRMASS FILLS IN ACROSS THE
BERING AND MUCH OF THE MAINLAND, TRANSITIONING ANY REMAINING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE BERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS AFTER REACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THE DIRECTION IT TAKES AFTER LANDFALL. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN
PATH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG
THE COAST AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CEILINGS DROP TO 1500 FT,
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN.
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