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FXAK68 PAFC 270053
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
CURRENTLY, CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE REGION IS STILL UNDER AN UNSETTLED REGIME WITH
MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. DUE TO
THIS FACT, A LARGE AREA OF OPEN-CELL CUMULUS IS OVER THE GULF,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THAT AREA AS WELL AS THE COAST. ALSO
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA IS A MESOLOW. THIS LOW IS ALLOWING
FOR LOCALLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION. THE MESOLOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, BUT HAS
REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS, SO THE TIMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THE SOUND SHOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION BY TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
SPEAKING OF MONDAY, A FRONT LIFTS INTO THE MAINLAND. HOWEVER,
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, NEW GUIDANCE IS HAVING IT TRACK FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS MEANS THAT SNOWFALL IS NOW EXPECTED FROM EAST ANCHORAGE
TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY ALONG THE GLENN HIGHWAY. THE TIMING FOR
THIS SNOWFALL IS DURING RUSH HOUR ON MONDAY MORNING. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GLENN HIGHWAY AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY DUE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND POTENTIALLY
SLICK ROADS. SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE IN SOUTHCENTRAL,
ONLY BEING ELEVATED IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
TUESDAY SEES A LOW RISE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER, IMPACTS
WILL BE SEEN MOSTLY IN THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL ONLY SEE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST. SLACK LOW
SETS IN THAT DAY AS WELL, WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE REGION. KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS
A STRONG LOW QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH END GALE
FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS
MOVES UP THE GULF. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, SO IMPACTS ARE YET TO BE CLARIFIED. EVEN SO, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BARRIER JET IN THE GULF NEAR CORDOVA WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES WITH THIS
LOW.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
THIS EVENING, SPREADING A COLD, UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST (AND
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH ANY GIVEN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW, BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT, WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FAIRLY ROBUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING, BUT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE
FRONT REMAINED INTACT A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST AND STALLED OVER
THE BETHEL AREA EARLIER, BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
AREA TODAY. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS A FRONT IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A MESOLOW THAT TRACKS
TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW; WITH THE LOW BEING VERY COMPACT, EVEN MINOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES CAN HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND
BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, FALLING/BLOWING SNOW MAY
INTERMITTENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS. ON
SATELLITE, THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE TRACKING QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, POSSIBLY BY 7 PM NEAR KIPNUK AND THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS ALSO DECREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THE
BERING SEA LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY/OFFSHORE, BRINGING COLDER, DRIER AIR THAT DECREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWERS TEMPERATURES. SHOWERY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEGINS TO ALIGN ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA
MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS WILL LIKELY HELP SPIN UP A NEW SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS OR ALASKA PENINSULA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY
LOW ON THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, MARGINALLY WARMER AIR LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA, BUT THIS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SHIFT FROM PRIMARILY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT TO PRIMARILY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
A FRONT OFF A KAMCHATKA LOW REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON
TUESDAY, BRINGS A SMALL CORRIDOR OF EASTERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND SKIRT ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE STAYS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS.
QUESADA/KC
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING BY THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AND COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
GULF MID-LATE THIS WORK WEEK, A COLDER AIRMASS FLOWING IN SOUTH
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE BERING AND MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND, TRANSITIONING ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE BERING TO
SNOW. MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN
THE GULF, AND HOW NORTH THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH, POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL DEPTH
OF THE LOW AND COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE BERING, STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN GAPS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR VISIBILITY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING THE VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE
AIRPORT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SNOW IN THE VICINITY, THE CEILINGS
COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.
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