318
FNAK71 PAFC 171651
FWSAER
SPOT FORECAST FOR AVY ACRES 125...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
751 AM AKST MON NOV 17 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 AKST ON NOVEMBER 17.
DISCUSSION
UPDATED TO INCLUDE VENT FACTOR AND OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS SOME INSTABILITY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY OUTLOOK: LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WEDNESDAY REGARDING
HOW CLOSE A GULF STORM WILL TRACK TO KENAI PENINSULA. FOR NOW, WINDS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING EASTERLY UP
TO 10-15 MPH IN THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY, BECOMING LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO WARM
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 35, LOW AROUND 27.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................12 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO
7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.0 INCHES.
TIME (AKST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 85 85 85 52 52 52 51 51 51
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RS RS SN SN SN SW SW SW SW SW SW
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 20 20 20 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............35 35 34 33 34 35 36 36 36 35 34
RH..............96 96 98 94 92 87 86 86 85 86 90
20 FT WIND DIR..E E S S S W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 0 0 0 3 3 3 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S SW SW SW S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
VENT (M^2/S)....436 316 489 628
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....1.2 INCHES.
TIME (AKST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........66 66 66 70 70 70 78 78 78 72 72 72
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70
TEMP............27 26 26 27 26 27 27 27 27 28 27 27
RH..............90 93 93 91 94 92 92 91 93 90 93 95
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
VENT (M^2/S)....490 480 412 429
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................18 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 8 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05 INCHES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNT.....0.5 INCHES.
TIME (AKST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........81 81 81 78 78 78 70 70 70 57 57 57
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 50 50 50 50 50 50 10 10 10
TEMP............27 28 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 34 33 32
RH..............95 94 93 93 93 93 91 89 86 83 83 84
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
VENT (M^2/S)....514 540 460 547
FORECASTER...JONES/CHEN
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BASFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525742.0/AER
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.BASFORD@USDA.GOV
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