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FXAK68 PAFC 251306
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
406 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE FOG AROUND ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA IS MUCH LESS
EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF IT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG KNIK ARM AND THE INTERIOR OF THE KENAI. WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TODAY, THIS FOG SHOULD
LARGELY DISSIPATE, THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR EXTENDS INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING AND HAS BROUGHT SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THERE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD ALLOW THOSE CLOUDS THE DISSIPATE AS IT LEAVES THE AREA.
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST, BUT AREAS
THAT DO CLEAR OUT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES FOR KODIAK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S, KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS RAIN.
MODELS HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON STRUCTURE AND IF THE FRONT CAN SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG ITS TROUGH AXIS. WHEN THE FRONT LIKELY ARRIVES TO
SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND
DOWNSLOPING IN LEE OF THE CHUGACH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LIGHT ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THE WINDWARD SLOPES,
HOWEVER, COULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH RAIN BEING
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT ALONG THE COAST AS A POTENTIALLY
MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF FOR THURSDAY
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. NORTHEASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY, GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS FLIP, BUT WILL
INCREASE IN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH KAMISHAK GAP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS, THE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS. GALES WILL
PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING, PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POCKET OF STORM FORCE GUSTS NORTH OF
UNALASKA BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF SAINT GEORGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PATTERN IN THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME
BENIGN MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR MOVES EAST TO WEST
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA, PUSHING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FURTHER
INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND
FRONTS TO EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. AS SUCH, CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BECOME UNSETTLED MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. A WARMER AIR MASS STREAMS
NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST, PUSHING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0S AND 10S UP
ALL THE WAY INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ALSO MOVE UP FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
USHERING IN A RETURNING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY SNOW AND RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY, WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE KILBUCKS. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT LOW MOVING UP INTO SOUTHWEST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A PATTERN SHIFT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE SEEN IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ITS ORIENTATION
IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE ALEUTIANS
AND A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS BRINGS WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE ALEUTIANS
RESULTING IN WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FALLING AS MOSTLY RAIN AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS; ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE BAYS AND PASSES.
WHILE A MAIN LOW ROTATES WELL EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS IN THE BERING
SEA THIS WEEKEND, NUMEROUS LOWS MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIANS BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS TO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE CHANCES OF STORMS REACHING THE
MAINLAND INCREASES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, MESOSCALE DISAGREEMENT
REMAINS FOR TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM
WEAK LOWS MOVING THROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. HOWEVER, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATES A WARMING TREND
FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY AS WAVES OF MOISTURE BRING PERIODS OF PERIODS
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
THE REGION.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
PANC... LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO BE STUBBORN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS, VISIBILITIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE BUT RATHER MORE LIKE
2 TO 5 MILES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES BELOW 1 MILE. VISIBILITIES
WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AS PATCHY FOG MOVES IN AND
OUT OF THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING TODAY. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TODAY WITH FLOW INCREASING IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FOG FULLY DISSIPATED
AROUND THE TERMINAL.
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