159
FXAK68 PAFC 260205
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
505 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THE NEXT 72
HOURS BRINGING WARMER AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL, KODIAK ISLAND AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON
AS NORTHERLY WINDS BROUGHT DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR REGIONS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOLER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
MANY PLACES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL; EXCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND, THE
KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COASTAL
AREAS. HERE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO UPPER 30S
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING; WARMEST ON KODIAK ISLAND.
THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND TODAY BRINGS CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD, EASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF STRAIT ARE LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STRENGTH LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO LATE THURSDAY IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DOWNSLOPING
TO OCCUR IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH
THIS STORM; LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
-JOHNSTON
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA, NEAR ATKA THIS EVENING, IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
SHORTWAVES ARE CIRCULATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY AND WILL LIKELY
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS IN THE
SHORT TERM. FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TREND WARMER AND TRANSITION TOWARDS PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM AS EACH WAVE LIFTS
NORTH AND THEN WEST INTO THE BERING.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 30S, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOL
TEMPERATURES TO ERODE AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW,
AROUND 2 INCHES FOR INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY, AND 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR
THE DILLINGHAM AREA TO ALEKNAGIK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. KING SALMON HOWEVER, COULD WARM ENOUGH TO SEE MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW OR EVEN COMPLETELY TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE DURING THE TRANSITION
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TO BRIEFLY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OF ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE DRIER AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR BRISTOL BAY. KING SALMON IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE DILLINGHAM
AND THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
BY THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE KUSKOKWIM WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
PUSHED OVER TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A SIGNAL OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE WILL BE KEY IN STORM TRACK,
WHERE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN HAVE
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT KIND/LEVELS OF IMPACTS AREAS FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TO KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS
THE LOW DRAWS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COAST AND FOR SOME AREAS INLAND. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AT SEA
LEVEL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
INTRODUCES THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND EVEN PLAIN
RAIN FOR SOME AREAS, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FOR NOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON
WINDS BEING IMPACTFUL.
-AM
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18-21Z WEDNESDAY
AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW AS COOLER AND DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. MODELS ARE
HINTING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, BUT AS EASTERLY CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANY
LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF.
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