506
FXAK68 PAFC 261415
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TODAY AS A SERIES
OF FRONTS MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL BRING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT IS
FAIRLY WEAK AND IS ALREADY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN THE WARM-UP AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. ANOTHER FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY
OVER KODIAK TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP IN THE RAIN AND STIFF EASTERLY
WINDS. DUE TO THE MAIN LOW COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTS
REMAINING OVER THE AK PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS INTO TOMORROW, THESE
FRONTS WILL NOT PLOW NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AS MUCH AS THEY
WILL EACH WARM IT UP A LITTLE MORE AND BRING IN BOUTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS.
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHALLENGE BOTH FOR FORECASTERS AND HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS. IN PARTICULAR, TURNAGAIN ARM THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS
SHOULD SEE SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, BUT
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY TOMORROW,
BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RIGHT AT THE CUSP OF THAT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THEREFORE, THERE COULD BE AREAS OF RAIN IN PLACES ALONG THE
HIGHWAY WITH OTHER AREAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
THIS AREA IN THE KENAI MOUNTAINS IS PROBABLY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST SO BE SURE TO CHECK ON THE LATEST FORECAST
BEFORE TRAVELING THROUGH THAT AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA ARE MUCH MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD AND SHOULD SEE THE SWITCH TO RAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DOWNSLOPING TO OCCUR IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH THIS STORM;
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS/FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST ALASKA CAN BE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND, THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN BRISTOL BAY AND BELOW FREEZING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE KILBUCK/AHKLUN MOUNTAINS
AND DILLINGHAM WEST TO THE WESTERN CAPES. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AS MOSTLY SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM DILLINGHAM TO ALEKAGNIK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
AND 2 INCHES OR LESS FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY. ILIAMNA AND KING
SALMON WILL BE THE WARMEST AREAS, ALLOWING FOR TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO RAIN AND BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BELOW AND
ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TO BRIEFLY BECOME A WINTRY MIX
OF ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM,
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY, BRIEF POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR BRISTOL BAY. KING SALMON IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE DILLINGHAM
AND THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
BY THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE KUSKOKWIM WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, COLD AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
PUSHED OVER TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A SIGNAL OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO ALL SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE WILL BE KEY IN STORM TRACK,
WHERE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW CAN HAVE
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT KIND/LEVELS OF IMPACTS AREAS FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TO KENAI PENINSULA WILL SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS
THE LOW DRAWS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COAST AND FOR SOME AREAS INLAND. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS AT SEA
LEVEL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A TIME THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
INTRODUCES THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND EVEN PLAIN
RAIN FOR SOME AREAS, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AS WELL WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FOR NOW THIS WEEKEND, WITH MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON
WINDS BEING IMPACTFUL.
-AM
AVIATION
PANC...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AT THE TERMINAL BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WIND SHEAR
BEGINNING TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 2000 FT OR HIGHER
BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POTENTIAL LASTS INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH INTRODUCES INCREASING CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING SNOW
SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO DROP TO MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS, THOUGH
THE PROBABILITY IS CONSIDERED LOW AT THIS TIME.
QUESADA
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