185
FXAK68 PAFC 270144
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST KENAI
PENINSULA INCLUDING CLAM GULCH, ANCHOR POINT, NINILCHIK AND
HOMER FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12PM THURSDAY.
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SKILAK LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF COOPER LANDING AND SKILAK LAKE FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 3 AM FRIDAY.
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INTERIOR
KENAI PENINSULA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOOSE PASS, HOPE, AND
SUMMIT LAKE FROM 9PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY.
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TURNAGAIN PASS
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY THESE
FRONTS.
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CROSSES THE GULF
OF ALASKA BRINGING SNOW, RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE
KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW EVENING. EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME WARMING MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
TOMORROW. THEREFORE, HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE SEWARD HIGHWAY
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN
A HEAVY, WET SNOW TO FALL AS LOW AS 1,000 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL RISES TO 1500 FEET LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS RISE IN SNOW LEVEL CORRESPONDS WITH A RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THESE AREAS AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY
GREATLY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE, THERE COULD BE AREAS OF RAIN IN PLACES ALONG THE
HIGHWAY WITH OTHER AREAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES IN TURNAGAIN PASS TO 5
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY FROM HOPE TO PRIMROSE.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WARMER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE KENAI PENINSULA RESULTING IN RAIN FALLING ON
STILL FROZEN GROUND. THIS WOULD CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON
THE STERLING HIGHWAY FROM STERLING TO COOPER LANDING. TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TOMORROW MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE
ARRIVAL OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ELSEWHERE, ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
DOWNSLOPING TO OCCUR IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH THIS STORM;
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
-JOHNSTON
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND WILL LIFT INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY, EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE KAMISHAK GAP, AND AREAS OF SNOW
FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ILIAMNA, KOLIGANEK, AND NEW STUYAHOK HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS GUSTING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THESE
WINDS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY FROM TOGIAK TO DILLINGHAM TO NEW STUYAHOK,
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF
DEFORMATION SNOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
PLACEMENT OF SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH FALLING FROM
BETHEL TO THE KUSKOKWIM COAST.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BOTH KING
SALMON AND ILIAMNA ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 40 DEGREES. THIS
WARMER AIR MASS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH A REPEAT OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN HAS BEEN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALLING BELOW FREEZING WHILE UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARMER. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AS WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FINALLY BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND QUICKLY
COMING TO AN END.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A BROAD FRONT INTO
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BL
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED NORTHWARDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC DUE TO A LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST INCLUDING KODIAK
ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO, THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE NORTHERLY FLOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE LOW. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL NOT SEE
LARGE IMPACTS WITH THIS LOW AND MAY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COAST MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
MONDAY SEES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER, A SECOND NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES UP TOWARDS THE BERING AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME, MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS WELL. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AT THE TERMINAL BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WIND SHEAR
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 2000 FT OR HIGHER
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL
LASTS THROUGH AROUND NOON THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS MAY ALSO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL BY THURSDAY EVENING,
LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY.
A FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WILL
INTRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO DROP TO MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY IS STILL CONSIDERED LOW AT THIS TIME.
TM/CQ
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