344
FXAK68 PAFC 271452
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
552 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY AND NOT-SO-WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FOR
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WITH PRECIPITATION PUSHING ACROSS THE KENAI.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ROAD SYSTEM OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. SPOTS AROUND
SOLDOTNA/STERLING, ALONG WITH HOPE AND TURNAGAIN PASS REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES COLDER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY TODAY
FOR THE PASS, THOUGH POSSIBLY MELTING AT TIMES AS TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE, FREEZING RAIN
BECOMING RAIN IS LIKELY. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THE WINDOW FOR
RAIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE SHORT IN MOST INSTANCES,
THEREFORE LIMITING ICE ACCRETION. REGARDLESS, ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
CAN RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS.
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT WARMING, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER STATUS
QUO TODAY. ANCHORAGE AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LARGELY DOWNSLOPED. SHOULD ANY PRECIP MAKE IT INTO TOWN IN
ANCHORAGE, IT MAY FALL AS VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, WITH THE FORMER
BEING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HILLSIDE... CLOSER TO THE WARMING
EASTERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR FILTERING BACK IN TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGEOVER BACK
TO SNOW IN AREAS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW DURING THE DAY. AN
OPEN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ANCHORAGE AND THE SURROUNDING COOK INLET REGION
INTO THE MAT-SU. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE-
GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH.
ANOTHER FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE KENAI ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY AND MAY
BE A CLOSE REPEAT TO TODAY/YESTERDAY WHERE WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING RAIN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE KENAI, AND SNOW TO TURNAGAIN
PASS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN LACK OF PRECEDING COLD AIR WITH
THIS EVENT, UNLIKE THE CURRENT ONE, FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AS WINDS FILTER THROUGH KAMISHAK
GAP. WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH ILIAMNA, KOLIGANEK AND NEW
STUYAHOK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DILLINGHAM AND AREAS WEST AND NORTH TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR BRIEFLY ALL RAIN.
THE WARMER TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN BRISTOL BAY INCREASING INTO THE MID 30'S
OR LOW 40'S (ILIAMNA TO KING SALMON). ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20'S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
FREEZING IN BRISTOL BAY, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING TRANSITIONS BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. BY THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND COMING TO
AN END.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING A BROAD FRONT INTO
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED NORTHWARDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC DUE TO A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST INCLUDING KODIAK
ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO, THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE NORTHERLY FLOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM THE LOW. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL NOT SEE
LARGE IMPACTS WITH THIS LOW AND MAY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COAST MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
MONDAY SEES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASE AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER, A SECOND NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES UP TOWARDS THE BERING AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME, MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS WELL. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION,
WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGHER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, HOWEVER.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
AND CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FT CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AS WELL, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
2000 FT INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS WIND SHEAR DIMINISHES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, GUSTING UP TO 25
KNOTS AND LINGERING FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME, A FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF
OVERRUNNING SNOW, RAIN, OR FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO DROP TO MVFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER THE TERMINAL SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW, THOUGH A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY WITH
MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
QUESADA
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