574
FXAK68 PAFC 280204
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3:
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A GALE FORCE FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, NOW STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO
PARTS OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING ALONG THE
TURNAGAIN ARM AND OUT OF THE MAT VALLEY WHERE GAP FLOW IS
ENHANCING WINDS NEAR GROUND LEVEL. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH MOSTLY RAIN ONGOING AT SEA LEVEL ALONG THE GULF
COASTLINE. FARTHER INLAND, TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM
SINCE THIS MORNING, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE KENAI PENINSULA NOW
SITTING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING CLOSE TO SEA LEVEL. THIS HAS
MOSTLY ENDED THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE STERLING
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR, ALBEIT PONDING WATER AND ICY PATCHES WILL NO
DOUBT REMAIN A HAZARD THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY FROM MOOSE PASS NORTH TO
TURNAGAIN PASS, WHERE A MIX OF SLUSHY SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IN
THE LEE OF THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAT-SU AND
ANCHORAGE HAVE STAYED FAIRLY DOWNSLOPED TODAY, BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD STILL MANAGE TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AT TIMES TONIGHT.
OVERALL, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
PATTERN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT UP FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WEAKENS AND HANGS UP
ALONG THE COAST NEAR CORDOVA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWEST TO HELP
DEVELOP A NEW BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF ANCHORAGE AND
UP INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAT-SU, WITH STEADY RAIN AND SNOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BY
THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL RELAX ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AS THE
AIR MASS AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION COOLS SLIGHTLY, SO THE
PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS AND ANCHORAGE WILL GENERALLY STAY WELL UNDER 1 INCH. SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE COPPER BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE STORM TOTALS OF UP TO A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO PAXSON.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, USHERING IN A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH, AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MAT VALLEY DOWN INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BREAK IN THE PATTERN WILL NOT LAST LONG, WITH
ANOTHER STRONG LOW AND FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM, MOIST AIR
WILL MOVE UP WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN TO RETURN TO THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU REGIONS.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON A STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TRACK FOR
THE GULF LOW. A MORE WEST TRACK ACROSS THE GULF WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ISSUES WITH LIGHT
WINTRY MIX, WHILE A MORE EAST TRACK WOULD DRIVE LESS WARM AIR
INLAND, AND KEEP PRECIPITATION MORE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
-AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
A REMNANT LOW IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
VISIBILITY IN BETHEL WAS DOWN BETWEEN ONE AND TWO MILES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND HAS ONLY JUST IMPROVED TO 3 MILES AS OF
2PM AKST. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, A
SECONDARY LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OVER BRISTOL BAY IS
PROMOTING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE GREATER
BRISTOL BAY AREA. FURTHER NORTH, AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE IN THE 20S
AND LOW 30S. WINDS HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THROUGH THE KAMISHAK
GAP. A TROUGH PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS
REACHED SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AS A RESULT, ALLOWING
THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BEGIN TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION, BUT ANOTHER WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A BROAD FRONT
LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE ALEUTIANS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. GALES
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERLY ALEUTIANS, WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE POSSIBLE FROM ATKA TO UNALASKA. OFFSHORE
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND GALES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE BERING ON
SATURDAY, ENCOMPASSING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS WELL. FOR MARINERS,
SEAS OF 20+ FEET ARE FORECAST ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIANS, WITH A SMALLER AREA OF 20 FOOT SEAS TO PUSH NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE SATURDAY.
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT BEYOND SATURDAY BECOMES LESS CERTAIN,
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO OVERSPREADING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THUS, FREEZING RAIN
AND AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXIST
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL NEED FURTHER
MONITORING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE NAIL DOWN THE
FINER DETAILS.
BL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY UNCERTAINTY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MONDAY STARTS WITH
A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW
WILL BRING A LONG SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND BRISTOL BAY. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS A LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA. BY TUESDAY, THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
BERING, LEADING TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGH END GALE FORCE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE BEING LOOKED AT, NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING A QUICK
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER, THE TRUE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND
WINDS CANNOT BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED RIGHT NOW. DUE TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IN THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. IF PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, SNOWFALL
WOULD BE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE LOW MOVING EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST BERING. AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND, ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THUS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE WHEN
THIS OCCURS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM COAST, BUT MOST KEEPS
IT ABOVE ZERO. MEANWHILE, THE LOW MAY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
THERE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS, WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5,000 FT AGL AND
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING SPRINKLES, WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT WILL
LIKELY SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONGER GUSTS FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS A FRONT LIFTS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
COOK INLET. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH, OR WEAK LOW, WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS NEW
FEATURE WILL FLIP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER COOK INLET, SPREADING MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW, GIVEN THE FORECAST MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, THE SET-UP DOES FAVOR THIS SOLUTION, WITH A
PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR VFR
CIGS AND VIS TO DROP TO MVFR BEFORE THE SNOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXIT THE REGION. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE SLACKEN WHILE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS UNDERNEATH A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION.
-TM
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