558
FXAK68 PAFC 281415
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TODAY, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT UP FROM
THE WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WEAKENS AND HANGS UP ALONG THE COAST NEAR CORDOVA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COULD PULL ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP A NEW BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS
OF ANCHORAGE AND UP INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAT-SU, WITH STEADY
RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL RELAX ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA AS THE AIR MASS AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION COOLS
SLIGHTLY, SO THE PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAT-
SU VALLEYS AND ANCHORAGE WILL GENERALLY STAY WELL UNDER 1 INCH. SNOW
WILL SHIFT INTO THE COPPER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE
STORM TOTALS OF UP TO A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO PAXSON.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, USHERING IN A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. IF
SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH, AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MAT VALLEY DOWN INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE BREAK IN
THE PATTERN WILL NOT LAST LONG, WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW AND FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL MOVE UP WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO RETURN TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP INTO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU REGIONS.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON A STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TRACK FOR THE
GULF LOW. A MORE WEST TRACK ACROSS THE GULF WOULD LIKELY BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ISSUES WITH LIGHT WINTRY MIX,
WHILE A MORE EAST TRACK WOULD DRIVE LESS WARM AIR INLAND, AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION MORE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA. STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS NEXT STRONGER
SYSTEM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFFECTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO THE WESTERN CAPES AND PARTS OF BRISTOL BAY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS MAY PERSIST LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST BEFORE A BROAD, NORTH PACIFIC
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN, WITH NEAR STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN UNALASKA AND ATKA. THE AXIS OF SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND GALES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF THE
BERING ON SATURDAY, ENCOMPASSING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. FOR
MARINERS, SEAS OF GREATER THAN 20 FEET ARE FORECAST ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH A SMALLER AREA OF 20 FOOT SEAS
TO LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING BY LATE SATURDAY.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON SUNDAY, ABOVE
FREEZING MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN MOVE IN OVER FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE Y-K DELTA. WHILE SOME MODEL
DIVERGENCE STILL EXISTS CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE ECMWF
AND NAM BOTH INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF MIXED
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY UNCERTAINTY,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY STARTS WITH A
LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW
WILL BRING A LONG SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND BRISTOL BAY. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AS A LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
BY TUESDAY, THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE BERING,
LEADING TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGH END GALE FORCE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE BEING LOOKED AT, NORTHWEST GALE FORCE
WINDS COULD AFFECT BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. A
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER, THE TRUE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND
WINDS CANNOT BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED RIGHT NOW. DUE TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IN THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. IF PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, SNOWFALL
WOULD BE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE LOW MOVING EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST BERING. AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND, ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THUS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE WHEN
THIS OCCURS. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM COAST, BUT MOST KEEPS
IT ABOVE ZERO. MEANWHILE, THE LOW MAY PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
THERE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE.
-JAR
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN AROUND 18Z THROUGH 0Z
TODAY, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT OR
EVEN TO MVFR AT TIMES. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS AT
AND NEAR THE SURFACE SLACKEN WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
UNDERNEATH A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS
INTRODUCES POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LATER ON SATURDAY, ANY FOG WOULD BE SCOURED OUT BY INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS. THEN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
QUESADA
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