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FXAK68 PAFC 291445
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
545 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH REGARDS TO A POTENTIAL
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THIS WEEKEND. A SHIELD OF UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT. PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KENAI AND ANCHORAGE APPEARS TO BE LINGERING
AROUND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ANY LINGERING FOG
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS AN INCREASE IN WINDS HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH, FIRST REACHING KODIAK AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS
MORNING, THEN SPREADING INLAND LATER TODAY. A NOSE OF WARM AIR
WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING STREAM NORTHWEST
OVERTOP OF COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAT-SU,
ANCHORAGE AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA RIGHT AROUND THE SAME TIME
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET,
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM ANCHOR POINT UP
TO WILLOW AND PALMER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW SET TO GO
INTO EFFECT MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR THIS ENTIRE CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREAS, ICING AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK LIKELY TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT (NO MORE THAN 0.10") DUE TO
A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS. FIRST OFF, INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE DOWNSLOPE DRYING WITH TIME, LIMITING PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. SECONDLY, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP SHARPLY
AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE.
THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE MIXING WITH TIME, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MAT
VALLEY, ANCHORAGE AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A FEW COLD POCKETS THAT
LINGER INTO SUNDAY WHERE WINDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, SUCH AS EAST
ANCHORAGE AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS COULD
ALLOW ISOLATED AREAS TO STILL SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FREEZING
RAIN LINGERING INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE AND WARM
PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST AND
WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO HONE IN ON THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY DISTINCT WEST SHIFT
FOR THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE LOW WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE THE KENAI PENINSULA, THEN
POSSIBLY SHIFT MORE NORTHEAST TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS COULD ACTUALLY FAVOR A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP INTO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS AND HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES CAN COOL BACK DOWN
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING, HOWEVER, THAT THIS IS A COMPLEX PATTERN
WITH A LOT OF ROOM FOR MORE CHANGES TO HOW THINGS EVOLVE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BROWN/AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
**KEY MESSAGE: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR UP TO 2" OF SNOWFALL AND UP TO 0.20" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION.**
A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WITH A GALE FORCE FRONT THAT CONTINUES NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING SEA, DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEAR THE COASTAL MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO BRISTOL BAY AND INLAND NORTH OF
DILLINGHAM BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE Y-K DELTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRIER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR AREAS UNDER THE WINTER STORM WATCH, PARTICULARLY FARTHER
INLAND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
LOWER, FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, AT TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND LESS THAN
2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 - TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK INTO THE BERING SEA WITH THE
LEADING FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA. WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MAINLAND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT THE SURFACE
AND WARMER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
WEAKENS IN THE SOUTHERN BERING, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW LONG
THIS FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING A PROLONGED PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH STRONG WINDS, PRECIPITATION, AND WARM
SOUTHERLY AIR MOVING OVER COOL NORTHERLY AIR. FOR THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL, WAVES OF SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTS WILL TRANSIT THE
GULF, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OR EASTERN GULF. AT THE LEAST, EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH LESS CLARITY FOR THE
LONG TERM WEATHER CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. TOWARD THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK THOUGH, A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW. STORM FORCE GUSTS SEEM MORE LIKELY ALONG
THE FRONT BUT MAY BE STUNTED PROGRESS AS IT BUMPS INTO A NARROW
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. AN
UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
TRANSITING SOUTH AND ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. BREEZY GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FT AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
INITIALLY, WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING TO MVFR.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
SO LINGERING PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY TURNS OVER TO ALL RAIN. A
LIGHT GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY, WITH MORE UNCERTAIN TIMING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY DROP BACK TO MVFR DURING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IF SNOW.
QUESADA
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