318
FZAK80 PAFC 102054 AAA
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS...AAA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
1154 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY 10 DECEMBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 15 DECEMBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH.
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LINGERS OVER THE BERING SEA,
CHUKCHI SEA, AND BEAUFORT SEA WHILE THERE IS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA ON
THURSDAY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA ON FRIDAY, AND THEN TO
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH
ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA ON MONDAY. VARIOUS LOWS WILL TRAVERSE THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON FRIDAY, WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. THE LOW
THAT TRAVERSES THE BEAUFORT SEA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BRING A WARMER AIRMASS WITH IT WHICH WILL SLOW ICE
GROWTH/THICKENING. EXISTING SHOREFAST ICE SHOULD REMAIN, BUT FURTHER
EXPANSION IS UNLIKELY AS WE HAVE NOT HAD A LONG-DURATION COMPACTION
EVENT TO REALLY ENCOURAGE ICE TO BE BOTTOM-FASTED.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT TODAY
(WEDNESDAY) AND THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO A LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW WILL BRING A WARMER AIRMASS
WITH IT WHICH WILL SLOW ICE GROWTH/THICKENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN
CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MELTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON
THURSDAY. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST WILL ENCOURAGE SHOREFAST ICE
DEVELOPMENT. ON SATURDAY MORNING, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BUT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR PILOT POINT TO
59 23’N 167 41’W TO 61 20’N 170 35’W TO 61 57’N 173 46’W TO 63 34’N
173 15’W AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN
WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR PILOT POINT TO 50 NM SOUTH OF CAPE MOHICAN TO
130 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HOOPER BAY TO 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
GAMBELL TO 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE SEA
THROUGH THURSDAY, OTHER THAN FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA/BRISTOL BAY
AREA WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. ON THURSDAY, A WARMER
AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INHIBIT THE ICE EDGE FROM ADVANCING
MUCH. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, A COLDER AIRMASS AND NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
THUS, EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO ADVANCE SOUTH AROUND 10-20 NM/DAY.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYONEK TO 61 8’N
150 36’W TO NEAR POINT POSSESSION. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET
EXTENDS FROM NEAR TYONEK TO 16 NM NORTHEAST OF TYONEK TO NEAR POINT
POSSESSION. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS COOK INLET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE UPPER-INLET, THE STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PREVENT ICE GROWTH AGAIN (SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND).
FENRICH
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