541
FZAK80 PAFC 130038
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
338 PM AKDT FRIDAY 12 DECEMBER 2025
FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 17 DECEMBER 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE BERING SEA. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE
LARGE POLYNYA THAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SHOREFAST ICE
WILL FREEZE UP WITH NEW ICE. OTHERWISE, THE VERY COLD AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ICE IN THE BEAUFORT SEA.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL COMPACT THE PACK ICE
AGAINST THE COASTLINE FROM CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH UTQIAGVIK WHICH
WILL ENCOURAGE ICE ALONG THE COAST TO BECOME BOTTOM-FAST.
TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
WHICH WILL MAKE CURRENTS THE PREDOMINANT MOVER OF ICE IN THE REGION.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR PILOT POINT TO
58 55’N 166 37’W TO 60 45’N 170 12’W TO 61 51’N 170 11’W TO 62 23’N
173 20’W TO 63 50’N 171 56’W AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS.
THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR PILOT POINT TO 55 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE MOHICAN
TO 85 NM WEST OF CAPE MOHICAN TO 125 NM WEST OF HOOPER BAY TO 100 NM
SOUTH GAMBELL TO NEAR GAMBELL AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN WATERS.
THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY, MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SEA ICE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD WHERE
IT WILL MELT IN WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER THE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL KEEP NEW ICE FORMING ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS GROWING IN
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL KEEP SEA ICE
GENERALLY IN THE SAME PLACE UNTIL NORTHERLIES BEGIN TO PICK UP ON
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ADVANCE THE ICE EDGE 10-20
NM/DAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM NEAR KASILOF TO 60 44’N
151 30’W TO NEAR TUXEDNI BAY. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET
EXTENDS NEAR KASILOF TO THE FORELANDS TO NEAR TUXEDNI BAY. THE ICE
EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PAUSE ICE FROM
FORMING DESPITE THE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. EXISTING
PACK ICE WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. EXPECT THE PACK ICE
TO COMPACT AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE INLET THROUGH THE
FORELANDS. A POLYNYA WILL OPEN ALONG THE WESTERN INLET WHICH MAY
REFREEZE QUICKLY NEAR THE COAST BUT WAVE ACTION AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE MIDDLE OF THE INLET OPEN.
LAWSON
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