559
FXAK68 PAFC 201412 AAB
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
KEY MESSAGES:
-WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY, THOMPSON PASS, AND VALDEZ. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO NORTH/WEST ANCHORAGE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
-VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SAME PATTERN THAT HAS NOW BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS
MONTH CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE EVER-PRESENT BERING RIDGE, AND TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN INTO THE
REGION, KEEPING NEARLY THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK VERY COLD, CLEAR AND
DRY. A SMALL POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO PARTS OF
ANCHORAGE FROM THE KNIK ARM THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW FOG PATCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL UNTIL NORTH WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP LATER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL GOING STRONG OUT OF GAPS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST, INCLUDING NEAR WHITTIER, SEWARD AND
VALDEZ. FARTHER INLAND WHERE WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT, FRIGIDLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE -0S TO -10S HAVE SETTLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAT-SU, ANCHORAGE AREA AND KENAI PENINSULA. EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE -20S TO -40S CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
PARTS OF THE COPPER BASIN.
GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL, THEN CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE GULF LATE TONIGHT.
A SURGE OF RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE, KICK-
STARTING ANOTHER BORA WIND EVENT. FORTUNATELY, THIS WIND EVENT
WILL BE MUCH SHORTER-LIVED THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE PREVIOUS
TWO BIGGER WIND STORMS THIS MONTH, AND THE PEAK STRENGTH OF WINDS
WILL ALSO NOT BE AS SEVERE.
ACROSS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN VERY
SUDDENLY SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A JET OF WINDS
DEVELOPING ALOFT ABRUPTLY MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BREAKS THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AROUND THE
SAME TIME THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF ANCHORAGE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY OF PALMER, PERHAPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 75 MPH AT THE PEAK
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA,
AGAIN PEAKING LATE TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ANCHORAGE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A HIGH WIND WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAT VALLEY STARTING AT THE SAME TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE MAT VALLEY ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
OUT TOWARDS VALDEZ AND THOMPSON PASS, FIERCE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALDEZ FROM THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ARE
EXPECTED UP IN THOMPSON PASS DURING THE SAME WINDOW. THE SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR STRONGER WINDS LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR LONGER
HERE, POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS ALL THE WAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BOTH VALDEZ AND
THOMPSON PASS REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, WINDS OVERALL WILL SETTLE DOWN ONCE AGAIN AS FLOW
RELAXES SOME AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN LOWER AS WINDS SUBSIDE ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS, LIKELY GOING BACK BELOW ZERO IN THE USUALLY FAVORED SPOTS
ACROSS THE MAT-SU, ANCHORAGE AND KENAI PENINSULA. FRIGIDLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE -40S WILL ALSO SPREAD BACK IN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COPPER BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-AS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS, BLOCKING NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEMS APPROACHING
THE ALASKA MAINLAND FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE PREVAILING
WIND FIELD AND LOW TRACK LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BEFORE CROSSING EASTERN RUSSIA BEFORE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE NEXT SUCH SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTH INTO
CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LONG TRAILING FRONT THAT WILL
REACH ALASKA'S WEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW RATES AND
TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NUNIVAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE KUSKO RIVER BEFORE
THE FRONT SHEARS APART. A COOLING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IS THEN FORECAST.
A SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PUSHES A GALE-FORCE FRONT INTO WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING, WITH SNOW REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
TAPERING OFF BEFORE REACHING DILLINGHAM AND PILOT POINT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND AREAS ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM BETHEL TO KALSKAG ARE ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE
UP TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW. BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
ALONG THE AKPEN, GUSTY NORTHWEST GAP WINDS OF VARYING INTENSITY
PERPETUATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIKELY BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. GREATER SNOW TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGH
TERRAIN.
-ER/MJB
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY)...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND EXTEND NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA. INFLUENCES FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY WORK TO KEEP THE GULF OF ALASKA
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
THROUGH TYPICAL AREAS, INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREA BEING
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. SOUTHWEST ALASKA, HOWEVER, WILL
SEE WARMER, SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE,
BRINGING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK UP THE COAST OF FAR EASTERN RUSSIA TOWARD
WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE
MOSTLY SNOW, THOUGH LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND
DOWNSLOPED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, THOUGH CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAKE IT PAST THE ALASKA RANGE INCREASE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKS INTO THE GULF
FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
PUSH NORTHWARD IN THE BERING AND MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK THE
HOLD OF THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE INLAND.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING
AROUND 06Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BY 18Z SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page