999
FXAK68 PAFC 221254
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 AM AKST MON DEC 22 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO PLACE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TANKED ALL THE WAY INTO THE -10S TO LOW -20S
ACROSS THE MAT-SU, ANCHORAGE AND KENAI PENINSULA AS CALM WINDS,
CLEAR SKIES, AND VERY DRY AIR COMBINE TO CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH OF THE COPPER BASIN CONTINUES TO SIT
IN THE -20S TO -40S, WHERE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT. ALONG THE COAST, COLD DRAINAGE WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
WHITTIER, SEWARD AND VALDEZ. VERTICAL MIXING IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WARMER WHERE WINDS PERSIST, BUT WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE NOT MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FARTHER INLAND.
FOR THE OUTLOOK THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE OVERARCHING PATTERN IS NOT
REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH. FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, RESULTING IN ANOTHER TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN GAP WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS SETUP DOES NOT
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS ANYWHERE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS,
INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THIS
TIME AROUND BE ALMOST ENTIRELY FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING
NEAR VALDEZ, WHITTIER, SEWARD AND MUCH OF KODIAK ISLAND. COASTAL
GAP WINDS WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD AND AS PREVAILING
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1
THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE GREATER KUSKOKWIM REGION
AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS. WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE BERING
MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR
THE COASTLINE, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. 1 TO 4
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT TOGIAK
NORTH THROUGH GOODNEWS BAY AND PLATINUM NORTH INTO BETHEL AND
THROUGH TOKSOOK BAY AND THE NELSON ISLAND AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR BRISTOL BAY, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS A BIT WITH
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ACROSS
THOSE PARTS, LESS THAN AN INCH.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER
AS AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
AND COASTAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SW ALASKA.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, CONTINUES WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP NUDGING
TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS SWAK, WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS FAR
INLAND AS ANIAK POSSIBLE. A TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER BEGINS ON
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST LATER THIS WEEK
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLY CLEAR,
COLD, AND DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A
POTENT SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS IT DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN/INTERIOR SIDE OF TERRAIN
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FOR MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES SOUTH INTO THE GULF, IT BRINGS A RENEWED THREAT FOR
HIGH WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS TYPICAL LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY, VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AKPEN AND GULF COAST. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF, WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER
WEST, A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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