076
FXAK68 PAFC 230309
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
609 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON DECK AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. CLEAR AND DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER MONDAY NIGHT FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN AREAS WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND MIXING
WITH WARMER LAYERS ALOFT DOES NOT TAKE PLACE. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COPPER BASIN AND THOMPSON PASS
WHERE WIND CHILLS IN THE RANGE OF -45 TO -60 WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. DRAINAGE WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WHITTIER, SEWARD AND
VALDEZ, AND VERTICAL MIXING IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT
WARMER WHERE WINDS PERSIST, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES ARE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
FARTHER INLAND.
FOR THE OUTLOOK, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. FROM
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER TEMPORARY INCREASE IN GAP WINDS FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION. THIS SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS
ANYWHERE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST, INCLUDING NEAR VALDEZ, WHITTIER, SEWARD AND MUCH OF
KODIAK ISLAND. COASTAL GAP WINDS WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVES
OVERHEAD AND AS PREVAILING FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA TOWARDS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE, RAISING TEMPERATURES TO A
BALMY 35F ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30-31F. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WILL REACH INTO THE 20'S ON WEDNESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE BERING SEA FROM EASTERN RUSSIA, PULLING A COLDER, ARCTIC
AIRMASS BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO
DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND SUB-ZERO BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING
SEA, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30'S AND LOW 40'S THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN, BRINGING ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A POTENT SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
SOUTH INTO THE GULF, IT BRINGS A RENEWED THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS TYPICAL LOCATIONS, INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY, VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN
AND GULF COAST. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH
THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE INLAND EXTENT OF SNOWFALL AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE
GULF LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED GAP WINDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
SOUTHERN AKPEN, AND GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST, A STRONGER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS THE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
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