652
FXAK68 PAFC 241440
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
540 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT
WEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
TEMPORARY INCREASE IN GAP WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE GUSTY WINDS ANYWHERE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS,
INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
ALMOST ENTIRELY FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING NEAR VALDEZ,
WHITTIER, SEWARD AND MUCH OF KODIAK ISLAND. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD, COASTAL GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
BY LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL WRING OUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE TALKEETNAS.
FARTHER EAST, LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY FROM THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN BY ISABEL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH MENTASTA PASS, NABESNA, AND
CHISANA AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN COLD AND DRY. THIS TROUGH WILL REINVIGORATE THE OUTFLOW GAP
WINDS IN ALL THE USUAL PLACES INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
NORTHERN GULF. CHANCES FOR THE NEXT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ARE
IMPROVING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FURTHER DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HERE ARE THE MAJOR WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK:
* WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* BLOWING SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -35 TO -45 POSSIBLE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE FROM EAST OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND
SOUTH TO BRISTOL BAY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, WITH MINOR EDITS, IS COPIED
BELOW AND STILL APPLIES:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, KEEPING A BUBBLE OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW
TRACKING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE IS HELPING TO
DRAW WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THIS HAS BROUGHT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD FOG TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH TODAY. THE
FRONT BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND ONE INCH, BEFORE THE COLDER, DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TO MIX OUT THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS, GIVING WAY TO SUNNIER
SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
OUT WEST, A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS, SPREADING
PRIMARILY RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ALONG THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY). FURTHER NORTH ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS,
COLDER AIR WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION THAT INITIALLY STARTS AS RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY (THOUGH
QUICKER FURTHER NORTH FOR SAINT PAUL). WINDS, WHICH INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE, WILL THEN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL SOMETIME CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE START TIME OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 20S WILL MAKE FOR MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS TO BLOW SNOW AROUND,
WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST HALF A MILE. VISIBILITY
INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS COLD AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH CAUSES THE FRONT TO
DROP SOUTHWARD.
FOR FRIDAY, COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA, WITH THE FRONT ALIGNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS UP INTO PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION
TO SEE IT IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW, WITH BLOWING SNOW BEING A
POTENTIAL CONCERN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. FURTHER NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER, WITH WIND
CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 40 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WELL. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST, THE COLD AIR
AND GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY TO EXTREME
FREEZING SPRAY HAZARD.
-QUESADA/CHEN
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS IN LATE THIS WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WHILE A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SUPPORTING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BRINGING A RENEWED THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS LATER THIS
WEEK ACROSS TYPICAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY,
VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW AS THE
LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, WHILE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE INLAND EXTENT OF SNOWFALL AS THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FURTHER WEST, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WILL PROMOTE
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE
GULF LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED GAP WINDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
SOUTHERN AKPEN, AND GULF COAST.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
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