215
FXAK68 PAFC 250232
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PATTERN BEGIN TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ROUNDS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SHIFTS EAST
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL, RESULTING IN ANOTHER TEMPORARY INCREASE IN GAP
WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE WIND
GUSTS FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE MAT VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST, INCLUDING NEAR VALDEZ, WHITTIER, SEWARD AND MUCH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST MOVES OVERHEAD,
COASTAL GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY AND WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN. THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL CAPTURE THE MAJORITY OF THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FRONT, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN BY ISABEL PASS EASTWARD
THROUGH MENTASTA PASS, NABESNA, AND CHISANA AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY. THIS
TROUGH WILL REINVIGORATE THE OUTFLOW GAP WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL
CHANNELS OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RETURN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL,
STARTING WITH KODIAK THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF NEW SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LESS THAN THREE INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU REGIONS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING TRACKS INTO THE BERING SEA FOR THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS
DAY). RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE BERING SEA, EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE LOW TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AS
THE LOW RUNS UP AGAINST STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHUKOTKA,
REACHING GALE FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING
FOR THURSDAY. THE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD, WHICH
BRINGS WARMER AIR TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, COULD ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
SAINT PAUL, WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH AND THUS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER.
AS A RESULT, BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE
HALF MILE IN SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP THURSDAY NIGHT, CAUSING A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO SNOW FOR THE PRIBILOFS AS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60-70 MPH. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE FORECAST UNTIL SNOWFALL COMES TO A
RELATIVELY QUICK END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
FURTHER EAST, SNOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST. APPRECIABLE SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 12 INCHES FOR
BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA GIVEN TRACK/TIMING
DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO LIMIT VISIBILITY. VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
GUST AROUND 60-70 MPH, THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER
THERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR. OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA, STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO LOFT SNOW AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS ON
SATURDAY.
IN INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD, WITH WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST, THE COLD AIR AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY HAZARD THAT
LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
QUESADA
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETS IN LATE THIS WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WHILE A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SUPPORTING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BRINGING A RENEWED THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS AT THE END
OF THE WEEKEND FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY, VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN
AND GULF COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SNOWFALL WILL LINGER IN THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND DELTA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE EASTERN GULF.
FURTHER WEST, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND WILL PROMOTE STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE UP TO 10
KT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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