144
FXAK68 PAFC 260236
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
536 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH
3/CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (1
TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS), THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AS LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW IS
EASILY LOFTED AND BLOWN AROUND BY THE MOVEMENT OF VEHICLES.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOFTED SNOW ALONG
ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY FROM NIKISKI TO ANCHOR POINT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH.
* KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOP TONIGHT, TRANSITION TO RAIN
FRIDAY, THEN GO BACK TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF A LOW TRACKING EAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND.
* THE REGION WILL DRY OUT THIS WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND WINDS ARRIVES. THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS, GUSTING 50+ MPH BY SATURDAY
EVENING.
THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
THE BERING SEA FOR MUCH OF DECEMBER HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A TEMPORARY CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
INLAND AREAS WITH CALM WIND, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY - FALLING BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND PHASE WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS NORTHERN SHORT-WAVE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, WITH MOST OF THE SURFACE LOWS REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT
BECAUSE IT WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF WARMING FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.
DESPITE A FAIRLY COMPLEX SET OF FEATURES, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH.
THE FORECAST FOR KODIAK ISLAND MAY BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
EXPECT A ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT, A TRANSITION TO RAIN FRIDAY AS
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN LOW TRACK AND
KODIAK'S WINDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO
SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW WARM DO THEY
GET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WHEN DOES THE AIRMASS COOL
ENOUGH BEHIND THE LOW TO CAUSE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC TROUGH LAGS WAY BEHIND. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE SOME COOLING BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE WIND BACKS TOWARD THE
NORTH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, BUT
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM ON
SATURDAY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. OF COURSE, PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOWFALL CAN CAUSE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TO FREEZING. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KODIAK ISLAND TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS CAUSED BY HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL, DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SNOW EVENT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
MINOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW INTENSITY DOES LOOK
HEAVIER FOR MUCH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA, POSSIBLY MORE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 6 INCHES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER, IS LOW
DENSITY SNOW WILL BE EASILY LOFTED AND BLOWN AROUND. THUS, THERE
COULD BE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADWAYS.
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW COULD LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COOK INLET FROM NIKISKI TO ANCHOR POINT.
ANOTHER ARCTIC SHORT-WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING AN END
TO PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, PICKING UP
IN EARNEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.
-SEB/TK
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SEVERAL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES SET TO BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA:
* BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEGINNING 11 PM TONIGHT.
* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST BEGINNING 12 PM FRIDAY.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WESTERN CAPES,
GREATER BRISTOL BAY.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA (PORT HEIDEN AREA) TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW HAS INCREASED AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING AND RAIN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW. A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AND PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
PRODUCTS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING
WARMER AIR TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, WHERE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT, CAUSING A DEFINITE SHIFT TO
SNOW FOR THE PRIBILOFS AS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN,
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60-70 MPH. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE
FORECAST UNTIL SNOWFALL COMES TO A RELATIVELY QUICK END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
FURTHER EAST, SNOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST. APPRECIABLE SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 12 INCHES FOR BRISTOL
BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO
16 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE
DILLINGHAM/CLARK'S POINT AREA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA GIVEN TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES
WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW TO LIMIT VISIBILITY. VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
SATURDAY AS SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GUST
AROUND 60-70 MPH, THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER
THERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR. OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA, STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO LOFT SNOW AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS ON
SATURDAY.
IN INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD, WITH WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST, THE COLD AIR AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY HAZARD THAT
LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHEN/JH
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A STRONG PRESSURE AND DENSITY GRADIENT
DRIVEN BY COLD AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL KEEP GUSTY GAP WINDS GOING THROUGH TYPICAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THE VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED GAP WINDS TO STORM FORCE
WILL ALSO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY, TO
THE WEST OF THE STACKED, COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. LIGHT
SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON MONDAY MAY PIVOT BACK WEST OVER
THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK SLOWLY SHIFTS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE TAP
EXITS TO THE EAST AND CUTS OFF PRECIPITATION FOR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. GAP WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GULF
LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST, MEANWHILE A NEW LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
INTO THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WARM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN, THOUGH THE LEADING (NORTH) EDGE OF THE
FRONT COULD START AS SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, OR SOUTHWEST ALASKA (THOUGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THERE ARE LOWER). TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO NEXT WEEK.
QUESADA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS
LIGHT SNOW SPREADS NORTHWARDS UP THE COOK INLET. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BELOW 5 KFT AND VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES AS
SNOW SPREADS OVER THE TERMINAL AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
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