940
FXAK68 PAFC 261446
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3/TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. WHILE
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (1 TO 4 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS), THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AS LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW IS EASILY LOFTED
AND BLOWN AROUND BY THE MOVEMENT OF VEHICLES.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE AREAS NEAR COOK INLET FROM
ANCHOR POINT TO NIKISKI, WHERE HEAVIER SNOW RATES AND STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IF YOU ARE IN A MOVING VEHICLE, YOU
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
* FOR THIS WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TO COLD AND WINDY.
HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
VALDEZ/THOMPSON PASS, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRESH SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND AND COULD CAUSE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ALONG AREA ROADS.
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN (INCLUDING MCCARTHY), BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES IS LOW. STAY TUNED.
A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY AS A FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A COMPLEX SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
ARE POSITIONED NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE. OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE
TO THE FORECAST, AN ARCTIC TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. WEAK SHORT-WAVES FROM THE PACIFIC AREA
BEING PULLED NORTH AND EAST TO SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THIS
ARCTIC TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR OVERRIDING COLDER AIR
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA ALONG WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE WEAK SHORT-WAVES IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. SNOW OVERSPREAD KODIAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW
SPREADING NORTHWARD TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. IT WAS ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, BUT THE LOW TEMPERATURE OCCURRED
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT FRO MOST LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
SLOWLY RISING AS CLOUDS AND SNOW ARRIVE.
THE FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE UPPED SNOW TOTALS
JUST A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WILL NOT BE DUE TO SNOW TOTALS, BUT RATHER REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AS DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW IS LOFTED BY EITHER WIND OR SIMPLY THE
MOVEMENT OF VEHICLES ALONG AREA ROADS.
THERE HAD BEEN SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST FOR KODIAK
ISLAND, BUT THAT IS NOW MUCH CLEARER. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED JUST A
BIT NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARMING TO ALL OF
KODIAK ISLAND TODAY, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. COLDER AIR
THEN WON'T MOVE BACK SOUTH UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, DELAYING THE
SWITCH BACK TO SNOW AND AMELIORATING PREVIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT
HEAVIER SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. STILL EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY, LIMITING THE ABILITY OF SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, AT WHICH POINT
SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED.
AS WE HEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC TROUGH CROSSING
THE BERING WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
PACIFIC. HOWEVER, A SECOND ARCTIC TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN REMNANTS OF THE BERING SHORT-WAVE AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVELY
DIGGING THIS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, THOUGH NOT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THIS TROUGH IS CRITICAL
TO THE WIND FORECAST. BASED ON THIS GENERAL TREND, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN YET ANOTHER STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND
EVENT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND VALDEZ/THOMPSON PASS. HIGH
WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THESE ZONES. AS WE'VE SEEN
OVER AND OVER AGAIN THIS MONTH, MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL, KODIAK
ISLAND, AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS,
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. AS WINDS FIRST
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION, THE FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW ON
THE GROUND WILL BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND. THUS, EXPECT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL ONCE AGAIN, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG
AREA ROADS.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY,
WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW
AND BRING SNOW INLAND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION. A FURTHER WEST TROUGH POSITION WOULD BRING A LONG
DURATION SNOW EVENT (HEAVY AT TIMES) TO MCCARTHY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. A FURTHER EAST TROUGH POSITION WOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW EAST OF MCCARTHY. A NEW LOW MOVING UP FROM
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD THEN BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THIS SAME AREA - AND POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. STAY TUNED, AS MODEL
SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE RIGHT NOW AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
SNOW FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND IS LOW.
-SEB/TK
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SEVERAL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES SET TO BE IN EFFECT/OR ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA:
* BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PRIBILOF ISLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON TODAY.
* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST BEGINNING NOON TODAY AND LASTS
THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WESTERN CAPES,
GREATER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY.
* COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FROM TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A ~996 MB LOW LOCATED
NEAR ADAK THAT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER TROUGH, WITH ITS
FRONT SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. WHAT IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW, BUT RATHER HOW LARGE THE
PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG 1040
MB ARCTIC HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT, WHERE
RELATIVELY WARMER AIR IS OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIGGING ARCTIC TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE BERING STRAIT REGION THAT IS AIDING THE FRONT WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE/ADDITIONAL LIFT.
THIS MORNING, RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO COOL
THE COLUMN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 TO
70 MPH, A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW A SHORT LIVED SNOW
EVENT FOR THE AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO LOFT
SNOW AFTER SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE EURO/CANADIAN SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AFTER THE BAND CURRENTLY OVER THEM MOVES OUT LATER
TODAY. THE OVERALL TREND DOES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE BAND TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE OUT
AND SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR THE BRISTOL BAY COAST, A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY TO NOON SATURDAY. RADAR RETURNS OVER THIS PART OF
COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE ON PAR WITH MODEL GUIDANCE +/- 2
HOURS, WITH THE OUTER EDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION HAVING TO CONTEND
WITH SOME DRY AIR. THIS FIRST PUSH OF SNOW IS THE BEGINNING OF A
LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT SETTING UP FOR THIS AREA. NOT ONLY IS
THIS AREA IN A SWEET SPOT FOR QPF, BUT INCREASING WINDS WILL BE
KEEPING VISIBILITIES QUITE LOW. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO
LIKELY MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND 50 MPH. LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AROUND THE DILLINGHAM/CLARK'S POINT AREA. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA GIVEN
TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW TO LIMIT VISIBILITY.
VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AS SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO GUST AROUND 60-70 MPH, THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER THERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR. OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA, STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO LOFT SNOW AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS ON
SATURDAY.
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, SPECIFICALLY PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COLD, WITH WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
NEAR OR BELOW 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST, THE COLD AIR AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A HEAVY TO EXTREME FREEZING SPRAY HAZARD
THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
-AM/CHEN/JH
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A STRONG PRESSURE AND DENSITY GRADIENT
DRIVEN BY COLD AIR OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL KEEP GUSTY GAP WINDS GOING THROUGH TYPICAL LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THE VALDEZ AREA/THOMPSON PASS, AND
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SYNOPTICALLY-FORCED GAP WINDS TO STORM FORCE
WILL ALSO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY, TO
THE WEST OF THE STACKED, COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. LIGHT
SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ON MONDAY MAY PIVOT BACK WEST OVER
THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK SLOWLY SHIFTS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE TAP
EXITS TO THE EAST AND CUTS OFF PRECIPITATION FOR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. GAP WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GULF
LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST, MEANWHILE A NEW LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
INTO THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WARM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN, THOUGH THE LEADING (NORTH) EDGE OF THE
FRONT COULD START AS SNOW FOR LOCATIONS ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA,
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS, OR SOUTHWEST ALASKA (THOUGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THERE ARE LOWER). TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE COLDEST AREAS BEING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHERE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO NEXT WEEK.
QUESADA
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING AS
CEILINGS STEADILY FALL THROUGH MIDDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY BY APPROXIMATELY 21Z.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXACT START TIME OF SNOW,
DEPENDING MAINLY ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS ABLE
TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW CLEARS OUT AND AS CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TOWARDS VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER, WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS COULD STILL CAUSE MINOR BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AROUND THE TERMINAL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page