700
FZAK80 PAFC 092342
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
342 PM AKST FRIDAY 9 JANUARY 2026
FORECAST VALID…WEDNESDAY 14 JANUARY 2026
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…MODERATE TO HIGH.
SYNOPSIS…HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTH SLOPE, BEAUFORT SEA,
CHUKCHI SEA, AND BERING STRAIT REGION. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS SITS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND WEAKEN WITHIN THIS LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 45 TO 80 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF ESTABLISHED SHOREFAST ICE SHOULD
REMAIN INTACT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE ICE PACK WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOREFAST ICE ALONG SOUTH-FACING COASTLINES WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO BREAK-OFF, ESPECIALLY FROM POINT HOPE THROUGH CAPE
KRUSENSTERN. A LARGE POLYNYA WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THAT SAME
AREA, WHICH WILL FREEZE FAIRLY QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE SHORE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ICE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD 10-20 NM/DAY IN THIS REGION.
THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO COMPRESS ICE AGAINST THE WALES TO ESPENBERG
COASTLINE AND PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOREFAST ICE IN THE AREA.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ760-BRISTOL BAY GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PIERCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ767-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM NEAR 56 34’N 159
44’W TO 57 43’N 160 16’W TO 57 25’N 163 54’W TO 58 7’N 168 53’W TO
59 33’N 172 56’W TO 62 16’N 175 56’W AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MARGINAL STRIPS OF ICE.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING
SEA EXTENDS FROM 45 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT MOLLER TO 100 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MOLLER TO 95 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM TO 135
NM SOUTH OF CAPE MOHICAN TO 50 NM SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO
145 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AND CONTINUES WEST IN RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MARGINAL STRIPS OF ICE.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE. ALONG THE ICE EDGE, MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STRONGEST SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND THROUGH BRISTOL BAY.
CURRENTLY, THE ICE EDGE IS RUNNING UP AGAINST WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. EXPECT THE WINDS TO STRIP
ICE AWAY FROM THE MAIN PACK INTO A ZONE OF LOW CONCENTRATION
MARGINAL ICE STRIPS. THESE STRIPS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST IN THE WARMER
WATERS AND MELT. HOWEVER, A DRY AND COLD CONTINENTAL INTERIOR AIR
MASS FLOWING OFFSHORE WILL AID IN COOLING THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL, EXPECT THE MAIN ICE EDGE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD 10-15
NM/DAY.
-COOK INLET-
PKZ740-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
ICE COVERED.
PZK741-KACHEMAK BAY-
PKZ742-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN COOK INLET EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHOR POINT TO
AUGUSTINE VOLCANO. THERE IS ALSO ICE FROM THE NORTHERN HOMER SPIT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF KACHEMAK BAY.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY UP THE INLET ON SATURDAY BEFORE
TURNING BACK LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THE
PERIODS OF NORTHERLY WINDS, THE ICE EDGE COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD AROUND
5 NM/DAY, HOWEVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN COOK
INLET WILL MELT ANY ICE SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
MOVE ICE TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SAME AMOUNT. HOWEVER, TIDES WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN ICE MOTION FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE NOTE THAT ICE MOTION IN COOK INLET IS HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
TIDES.
LAWSON
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