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FZAK30 PAFC 231837
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SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
936 AM AKST FRIDAY 23 JANUARY 2026
…JANUARY 2026 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK…
MID-DECEMBER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY FEATURED A
CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS FLOWING OFF OF MAINLAND ALASKA. AIR
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO (F) AND NORTHERLY WINDS BROUGHT THE BERING
SEA ICE PACK FROM BELOW NORMAL IN MID-DECEMBER TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID-JANUARY. JANUARY WAS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT LA NINA STORM
TRACKS AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASSES. MUCH OF LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY
JANUARY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN TOWARD THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR TO
BOTH COOL THE BERING SEA AND ADVECT ICE SOUTHWARD. THE ICE EDGE CAME
WITHIN 20 NM OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND. HAD THE EDGE REACHED SAINT PAUL
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE SECOND EARLIEST IN THE LAST 28 YEARS.
HOWEVER, THE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN FLIPPED IN MID-JANUARY TO THE
OTHER PREDOMINANT LA NINA STORM TRACK WHICH IS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING SEA. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND A WARMER AIR MASS MELTED AND RETREATED THE ICE EDGE BACK
TO THE NORTH TOWARD SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
COOK INLET GREW ICE AT A RATE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE LAST 20 YEARS.
THE CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIR MASS HELPED COOL DOWN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP ICE GROWING IN THE UPPER INLET TO BE ADVECTED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER INLET. THE ICE EDGE BRIEFLY REACHED ANCHOR
POINT, AUGUSTINE VOLCANO AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF SHELIKOF
STRAIT. OVERALL THE ICE EDGE HAS REMAINED IN SOUTHERN COOK INLET.
ICE HAS GROWN TO A MAJORITY OF FIRST-YEAR THIN DUE TO A COLD AIR
MASS AND SEVERAL SNOW STORMS ADDING NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW ON TOP OF
ICE. KACHEMAK BAY HAD ICE GROW FROM THE HOMER SPIT AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE, SOME OF THIS ICE ADVECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
BAY BEFORE MELTING. MID-MONTH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVED OVERHEAD WHICH
CAUSED THE PACK TO OPEN UP SLIGHTLY WITH SOME AREAS OF OPEN WATER
VISIBLE WHILE STILL OVERALL MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
AS WE LOOK FORWARD INTO LATE-WINTER, WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING WHILE APPROACHING ENSO-
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THE STORM TRACK DURING LA NINA YEARS USUALLY
COMES IN TWO FLAVORS, SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA, OR FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING SEA OVER THE CHUKCHI PENINSULA.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
FOR BRISTOL BAY, CURRENT ICE CONDITIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO SEVEN-
TENTHS OF COVERAGE. WHEN NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SEVEN TENTHS
COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY.
THE ICE EDGE GOT WITHIN 20 NM OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND IN MID-JANUARY
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE STORM TRACK LOOKS TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE TO RETURN NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE ICE PACK IN EARLY
FEBRUARY. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO REACH SAINT PAUL DURING THE SECOND
WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SAINT GEORGE DURING THE THIRD WEEK
OF FEBRUARY.
THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK LOOKS TOO CLOSE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TO GET ICE ARCTIC AIR AND ICE FORMATION IN IZEMBEK LAGOON OR ICE IN
FALSE PASS. HOWEVER, IF LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DO SET UP
IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND ICE FREE OR OPEN IS EXPECTED DURING EARLY
APRIL.
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS ICE FREE OR OPEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
APRIL.
FOR THE FORELANDS TO FIRE ISLAND, LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS
POSSIBLE, DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MID-APRIL.
TURNAGAIN ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE FREE OR OPEN AROUND MID-APRIL.
KNIK ARM IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE BY MID-
APRIL AND ICE FREE OR OPEN BY LATE-APRIL.
COOK INLET OUTSIDE OF TURNAGAIN AND KNIK ARMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE OR OPEN BY MID-APRIL.
COOK INLET SEA ICE FREE IS EXPECTED BY LATE-APRIL.
…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT GEORGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
APRIL.
THE LAST ICE AT SAINT PAUL IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
APRIL.
BRISTOL BAY LESS THAN THREE TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID-
APRIL. ICE FREE OR OPEN WATER IS EXPECTED IN LATE APRIL.
LAWSON
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